有色金属周报：锌：短期支撑稳固-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand with inventory accumulation. However, as downstream开工 rates rise and there is an expectation of regular inventory stocking before the National Day holiday, the demand side is expected to improve, and the speed of inventory accumulation will slow down. Additionally, LME zinc remains in a back structure, the Shanghai-London ratio continues to deteriorate, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open. In the short term, the support below the zinc price is solid, and one can lightly allocate long positions. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and overseas risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.96% to 22,160 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract rose by 0.68% to 22,305 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.45% to 2,956 US dollars/ton [10]. - Basis and Spread: The report presents data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount, trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, Shanghai - London ratio, and various spot and futures spreads [12][14]. 2. Raw Material Situation - Zinc Concentrate Inventory: As of September 12, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 445,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons [21]. - Zinc Concentrate Profit: As of September 11, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,838 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [28]. - Processing Fees: The domestic TC decreased slightly, while the imported TC continued to increase. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][32]. 3. Refining Production - Production Profit: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of September 11, the production profit was - 228 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons in August [38]. - Import Situation: The import profit window was closed. As of September 12, the import profit of refined zinc was - 2,804.68 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [41]. 4. Downstream Consumption - Galvanizing: The galvanizing enterprise开工 rate increased by 5.98 percentage points to 56.06%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [47][50]. - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy: The price of zinc alloy increased slightly. The开工 rate increased by 2.99 percentage points to 53.99%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [59][62][65]. - Zinc Oxide: The price of zinc oxide increased by 0.47% to 21,300 yuan/ton. The开工 rate increased by 2.71 percentage points to 57.21%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory fluctuated slightly [69][72][75]. 5. Inventory Situation - Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory: As of September 11, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 143,300 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week [82]. - Exchange Inventory: As of September 12, the SHFE inventory was 94,600 tons, showing an increase. As of September 11, the LME inventory was 50,500 tons, showing a continuous decline [85]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance table from July 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and monthly supply - demand balance of zinc [91].