合成橡胶投资周报：装置检修提振有限，BR价格宽幅震荡运行-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of BR rubber shows wide - range volatile movement. The impact of device maintenance on supply is limited, while demand has mixed factors, and inventory has a negative influence. Fundamentals are relatively strong, but trading volume has weakened. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile state [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a unilateral upward trend in volatility. For arbitrage, it is advisable to pay attention to going long on BR and shorting NR/RU. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical situations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have been reduced by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China is between 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton [7]. - The suspension of several butadiene rubber devices has led to a slight decline in domestic production and capacity utilization. However, the sufficient supply of most brands limits the price increase. Weakening demand for raw material butadiene and price softening, along with downstream purchasing behavior, have put pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - In 2025, many refineries of Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have device maintenance plans, involving various regions and different types of devices, with a wide range of maintenance capacities and time spans [12]. 3.3 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Device Maintenance Data Statistics - Many butadiene production enterprises have experienced device shutdowns, affecting production capacity. For butadiene rubber, some devices are in normal operation, while others are under maintenance, and some have future shutdown plans [13]. 3.4 Butadiene and Butadiene Rubber Market Data - Supply: Butadiene production and high - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization have declined due to device shutdowns [4]. - Demand: In the semi - steel tire market, the replacement market is stable, with increased production of winter tires and some shortages in all - season tires. In the all - steel tire market, the replacement market price is stable, with a slight improvement in trading volume [4]. - Inventory: Butadiene port inventory has decreased, while butadiene rubber enterprise and trader inventories have increased [4]. - Basis: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 165 yuan/ton, in East China is - 65 yuan/ton, and in South China is 35 yuan/ton [4]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread is 4,205 yuan/ton (2.19%), the NR - BR spread is 940 yuan/ton (6.82%), and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.36% [4]. - Profit: The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 36 yuan/ton, and through C4 extraction is 1,997.21 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 128 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 1.06% [4].