2025年8月经济数据点评：8月经济：逆风破局的政策信号

Economic Overview - In August, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month, while the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, growing by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month[1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August totaled 326,111 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%[1] Investment Trends - Investment in the manufacturing sector showed a negative growth of -1.3% in August, worsening from -0.3% in July, indicating weakened investment momentum[4] - Infrastructure investment faced significant pressure, with broad infrastructure growth declining from -2.0% in July to -6.4% in August, primarily due to adverse weather conditions[7] Consumption Insights - The retail sales growth rate continued to decline to 3.4% in July, with the "old-for-new" subsidy effect diminishing, leading to a potential increase in consumption pressure[8] - The upcoming release of the last batch of "national subsidy" funds in October is expected to stimulate consumption policies, focusing on wage growth and reducing consumption restrictions[8] Employment Concerns - The urban survey unemployment rate is expected to rise, particularly among youth, with the number of college graduates increasing to 12.22 million this year, up from 11.79 million last year[3] Policy Implications - The report suggests that expectations for a new round of policy easing are likely to intensify, particularly with the anticipated rollout of new financial tools aimed at stabilizing investment and promoting consumption in the fourth quarter[2]