Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to fluctuate, with a long - term upward trend [3][5] Core Viewpoints - Short - and medium - term, cotton prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline due to increased supply and hedging pressure. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise due to potential domestic supply - demand tightness, global supply - demand balance, and favorable macro - policies [5]. - Cotton yarn prices are expected to strengthen in the near term due to the approaching consumption season and the expected mild increase in cotton prices [7]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly View - Cotton - Short - and medium - term, new cotton purchase is likely to be stable. Prices may rebound from September 15th to October 15th and then decline. The CF2601 futures price will range from 13,300 to 14,500. Long - term, prices are expected to rise due to potential supply - demand tightness and favorable policies [5]. 02. Weekly View - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton and cotton yarn markets fluctuated. The cotton yarn market had average trading, with low - count yarns performing better. Inner - region spinning mills are still in cash - flow losses. Prices are expected to strengthen in the near term [7]. 03. Market Review - Cotton market: Zhengzhou cotton was weak. Many cotton merchants have low inventories, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinners purchase cotton based on rigid demand, waiting for new cotton purchase guidance. New cotton output is expected to increase, bringing long - term pressure. - Cotton yarn market: Trading was average, worse than previous years. Low - count yarns performed better. Inner - region spinning mills are in cash - flow losses and lack confidence [11]. 04. International Macroeconomics - The US released a series of economic data, including manufacturing PMI, employment, trade, and inflation data. The eurozone also released data on unemployment, inflation, and GDP [12]. 05. Domestic Macroeconomics - China released data on foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing, and new RMB loans [14]. 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton seasons, global cotton supply, consumption, and trade volume have different adjustments, and the ending inventory has decreased [15]. 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased, total demand increased, and ending inventory decreased. In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased, total demand was stable, and ending inventory decreased [20]. 08. US Cotton Exports - As of September 4, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 882,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a shipment rate of 18.11%. China had signed 16,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 2.30% [23]. 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - As of July 31, industrial and commercial inventories totaled 308.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons. As of August 15, they totaled 274.44 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from July [26]. 10. July Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. Cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [29]. 11. August Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved. Production was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The cumulative production from January to August was 3.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [33]. 12. US Cotton Growth - As of September 7, the boll - setting rate was 97%, the boll - opening rate was 40%, the harvesting rate was 8%, and the good - quality rate was 54%. Growth was accelerating, and the expected output was higher than the USDA forecast [36]. 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 9, the drought index in the US cotton - growing area was rising but still lower than the five - year average. Cotton growth was accelerating [39]. 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 8, the boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was 47.5%. Northern Xinjiang will start machine - harvesting around September 20, and southern Xinjiang's hand - picked cotton is being harvested [41]. 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.12% and a year - on - year increase of 0.49% [42]. 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, social consumer goods retail sales were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Clothing and textile retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [47]. 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% [50]. 18. US Clothing Retail Sales in June 2025 - In June 2025, US clothing and accessory retail sales were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% [53]. 19. US Cotton Product Imports in June - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47%. Textile and clothing imports were 8.564 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.45% [57]. 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 12, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,017, a decrease of 142 from last week [60]. 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of September 9, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures decreased [63]. 22. Spinning Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of pure cotton spinning mills was 64.5, unchanged from last week [66]. 23. Weaving Mill Load - As of September 12, the load index of all - cotton grey fabric mills increased, and the yarn load continued to recover [70]. 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton, cotton yarn, and all - cotton grey fabric inventories decreased, indicating market improvement [74]. 25. Industry Chain Profit - The profit of cotton yarn improved slightly. Inner - region spinning mills' C32S cash - flow loss was about 300 yuan/ton [80]. 26. Basis - The basis remained high. The basis of pre - sold new cotton was 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [81]. 27. Domestic - Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, domestic cotton is stronger than foreign cotton. The situation may change in November - December [84]. 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 11 - 1 month spread was - 150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short 11 - month and long 1 - month contracts [89].
长江期货棉纺产业周报：震荡运行-20250915
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-15 07:13