Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, but the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position [1]. - The Shanghai zinc is expected to be sorted strongly in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to the suppression of fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,040 yuan/ton, up 0.83% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 63,429 lots, up 51.85%; the open interest was 52,188 lots, up 5.21% [1]. - The LME inventory was 229,575 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 59,485 tons, down 0.42% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.68%, a week-on-week increase of 0.07 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 22.3%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises was 72.14%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.01 percentage points [1]. - On September 11th, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.99 US dollars/ton, and the open interest was 158,239 lots, an increase of 784 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The import of lead concentrates has no incremental expectation, and the processing fee is likely to rise but difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on the refinery's operation. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has fluctuated slightly [1]. - In the secondary lead sector, the lead price has been consolidating. Due to raw materials and losses, the refineries' enthusiasm for operation has weakened, the scope of production cuts and suspensions has further expanded, and the current operation rate is less than 30%. Some enterprises purchase from peers to fulfill long - term orders, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through the 17,000 - yuan mark last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of rising prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - On September 15, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,160 yuan/ton, up 0.23% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,305 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 103,603 lots, up 11.02%; the open interest was 97,697 lots, down 2.73% [1]. - The LME inventory was 50,525 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 45,905 tons, up 2.18% [1]. Industry News - From September 5th to September 11th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 56.06%, a week-on-week increase of 5.98 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises was 53.99%, a week-on-week increase of 2.99 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.21%, a week-on-week increase of 2.71 percentage points [1]. - As of September 12th, the total inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major ports in China was 44.55 million tons, an increase of 1.66 million tons from the previous week, and the inventory at Lianyungang Port increased significantly [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Last week, the processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates was flat week-on-week at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased week-on-week to 98.75 US dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have a strong advantage, and refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The domestic TC in September may have limited upside [1]. - On the supply side, refineries' profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output increase trend is obvious [1]. - On the demand side, as the impact of the military parade and the SCO Summit fades, the operation of downstream enterprises has rebounded significantly, and demand has improved. In addition, as the Shanghai - London price ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window may open [1].
铅锌日评：或偏强整理-20250915
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-15 07:14