镍与不锈钢日评20250915：反弹空间有限-20250915

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250915: Limited Rebound Space [1] - Core Viewpoint: The Fed's increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory reduction pressure, with a limited rebound in nickel prices; stainless steel has a loose fundamental situation but cost - side support, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,800 yuan/ton, 121,980 yuan/ton, 122,160 yuan/ton, and 122,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,750 yuan, 1,360 yuan, 1,370 yuan, and 1,350 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai nickel futures contract was 145,101 lots (+57,563), and the open interest was 72,640 lots (-9,051) [2] Spot Market - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of nickel beans was 124,200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,350 yuan [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures was 22,111 tons; the total inventory of SMM Chinese port nickel ore was 874 (in 10,000 wet tons), a decrease compared to the previous day; the total SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,700 tons, a decrease compared to the previous day; the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 39,470 tons, an increase compared to the previous day [2] International Market - On September 12, 2025, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15,275 US dollars/ton, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton, and the on - site closing price was 15,150 US dollars/ton; the trading volume was 5,064 lots [2] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Data Futures Market - On September 12, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,950 yuan/ton, and 12,985 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 0 yuan, 65 yuan, 80 yuan, and 70 yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the active Shanghai stainless - steel futures contract was 153,413 lots, and the open interest was 126,286 lots (-2,058) [2] Spot Market - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous day; the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,725 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 9,6949 tons (-605); the 300 - series social inventory last week was 96,300 tons (-15,400) [2] Group 4: Industry News - On September 12, an Indonesian law - enforcement team seized a 148 - hectare nickel - mining area in Weda Bay and a 172.8 - hectare mining area of PT Tonia Mitra Sejahtera in Southeast Sulawesi Province due to the lack of proper forestry licenses [2] Group 5: Market Logic and Strategies Nickel - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel - ore arrival volume decreased, and port inventory increased; nickel - iron plant loss margins narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production in September, and nickel - iron destocking; domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary - material production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [2] Stainless Steel - Supply: Stainless - steel production increased in September [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] - Cost: High - nickel pig - iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [2]