贵金属日评20250915：美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The weak performance of the US employment data in August, the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation meeting expectations and the previous value, more Fed officials supporting interest rate cuts, and Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials have led the market to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Geopolitical risks such as the Russia - related conflicts are difficult to resolve, and central banks of many countries around the world are continuously buying gold, which may make precious metal prices prone to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: - Shanghai gold futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 834.22 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 170,217.00 and an open interest of 109,267.00. The inventory was 52,950.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai gold T + D: Closing price was 830.34 yuan/gram, trading volume was 36,270.00, and open interest was 206,336.00 [1] - COMEX gold futures active contract: Closing price was 3,680.70 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 147,566.00, and open interest was 385,713.00. The inventory was 38,914,490.82 (in troy ounces) [1] - London gold spot: Closing price was 3,546.30 dollars/ounce [1] - SPDR gold ETF holding: 974.80 tons, with a change of - 3.15 tons [1] - iShare gold ETF holding: 457.86 tons [1] - Silver: - Shanghai silver futures active contract: Closing price on 2025 - 09 - 12 was 10,035.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 301,985.00, and open interest was 219,328.00. The inventory was 1,240,187.00 (in ten - gram units) [1] - Spot Shanghai silver T + D: Closing price was 9,772.00 yuan/ten - gram, trading volume was 304,080.00, and open interest was - 78,720.00 [1] - COMEX silver futures active contract: Closing price was 41.32 dollars/ounce, trading volume was 66,072.00, and open interest was 133,690.00. The inventory was 527,423,229.52 (in troy ounces) [1] - London silver spot: Closing price was 42.26 dollars/ounce [1] - E - iShare silver ETF holding: 15,230.57 tons [1] - Canada PSLV silver ETF holding: 6,129.64 tons [1] 2. Price Ratios and Spreads - Gold: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai gold, it was 1.72; for COMEX gold, it was 2.50 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai gold, it was - 3.88; for COMEX gold, it was 14.25 [1] - Silver: - Spread between near - month and far - month contracts: For Shanghai silver, it was - 75.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.02 [1] - Basis (spot - futures): For Shanghai silver, it was - 15.00; for COMEX silver, it was - 0.35 [1] 3. Other Market Data - Commodities: - INE crude oil: Closing price was 475.30 yuan/barrel [1] - ICE Brent crude oil: Closing price was 66.31 dollars/barrel [1] - NYMEX crude oil: Closing price was 62.24 dollars/barrel [1] - Shanghai copper futures: Closing price was 81,060.00 yuan/ton [1] - LME copper spot: Closing price was 10,067.50 dollars/ton [1] - Shanghai rebar: Closing price was 3,127.00 yuan/ton [1] - Dalian iron ore: Closing price was 799.50 yuan/ton [1] - Interest Rates: - SHIBOR: 1.37% and 1.66% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield: 4.0100% [1] - US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield: 1.7900% [1] - 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation: 2.3600% [1] - Exchange Rates: - US dollar index: 97.5299 [1] - US dollar - RMB central parity rate: 7.1019 [1] - Euro - RMB central parity rate: 8.3326 [1] - Stock Indices: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3,875.3094 [1] - S&P 500: 6,584.2900 [1] - UK FTSE 100: 9,283.2900 [1] - France CAC40: 7,825.2400 [1] - Germany DAX: 23,770.3300 [1] - Nikkei 225: 44,768.1200 [1] - South Korea Composite Index: 3,344.2000 [1] 4. Important Information - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis again because the Democrats demand to add the subsidy extension of the Affordable Care Act to the government appropriation bill. If the subsidy expires, the medical insurance premiums of about 22.4 million Americans will rise significantly, causing political backlash [1] - It is the "central bank super - week", and major central banks such as the Fed, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions [1] 5. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly set up long positions when the price drops. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,650 - 3,750 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 850 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 38 - 39 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 41 - 43 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,000 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]