Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has arrived, with downstream polyolefin operating rates improving month - on - month, especially in the agricultural film sector. However, due to supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, polyolefin prices have been declining. Terminal demand is still improving, and there is an expectation of price increase in the future. It is expected that the LL main contract will trade between 7200 - 7500, the PP will trade between 6900 - 7200, and the LP spread will widen [8]. - The supply - demand contradiction in plastics has eased, and there is strong support at the bottom. For PP, the upward trend faces significant pressure, and it is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term [8][9][47]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7169 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05%. The average prices of LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE in South China all decreased slightly. The LLDPE South China basis widened, and the 9 - 1 month spread narrowed [10]. 2. Key Data Tracking - Month - spread: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 12 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 5 - 9 month spread was 131 yuan/ton (+40), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-40) [18]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various types of plastics in different regions showed different degrees of decline [19][20]. - Cost: WTI crude oil closed at $62.11 per barrel, up $0.14 from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $66.88 per barrel, up $1.21 from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [22]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PE was - 220 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 931 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [26]. - Supply: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 78.04%, down 2.51 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 61.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The maintenance loss this week was 14.62 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from last week [30]. - 2025 Production Plan: A total of 15 projects are planned to be put into production in 2025, with a total capacity of 613 tons [33]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many enterprises' devices are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [34]. - Demand: The overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films this week was 24.12%, up 3.94% from last week; the operating rate of PE packaging films was 51.30%, up 0.82% from last week, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, up 1.34% from last week [36]. - Downstream Production Ratio: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 32.8%, and the difference from the annual average level is 2.7%. The difference between low - pressure injection molding and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 8.5%, and the difference from the annual average level is 3.7% [41]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.03 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% [42]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 12, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,525 lots, an increase of 4,262 lots from last week [45]. PP 1. Market Review - On September 12, the closing price of the PP main contract was 6913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton from last week. The prices of various PP products across the country also decreased [48][51]. 2. Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, PE, PVC powder, PVC paste, and PS all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous period [53]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7106.67 yuan/ton (-0.09%). The PP basis was 194 yuan/ton (+41), and the basis widened. The 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14), and the month spread narrowed [55]. - Month - spread: On September 12, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 23 yuan/ton (-8), the 5 - 9 month spread was 149 yuan/ton (+22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 126 yuan/ton (-14) [64]. - Cost: The same as the cost data of plastics, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices increased, and the price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port decreased [66]. - Profit: The profit of oil - based PP was - 322.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 67.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 490.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.73 yuan/ton from last week [70]. - Supply: The operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 76.83%, down 3.08 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP granules was 78.67 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35%, and the weekly output of PP powder was 5.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87% [73]. - Maintenance Statistics: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the maintenance time of some devices is uncertain [77]. - Demand: The average downstream operating rate this week was 50.86% (+0.63). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 43.10% (+0.40), the operating rate of BOPP was 61.55% (+0.12%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.06% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.67% (+0.17%) [79]. - Import and Export Profit: This week, the PP import profit was - 500.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83.04 US dollars/ton compared with last week, and the export profit was - 3.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.40 US dollars/ton compared with last week [84]. - Inventory: This week, the domestic PP inventory was 57.51 tons (-1.17%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 0.99% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.97% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 0.68% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 1026.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and the BOPP raw material inventory was 9.52 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [88][92]. - Warehouse Receipts: On September 12, the number of PP warehouse receipts was 13,706 lots, a decrease of 43 lots from last week [96].
长江期货聚烯烃周报-20250915
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-15 07:24