甲醇周报：烯烃外采增加，甲醇现货价格上涨-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - environment of the market has improved, and the main methanol futures have shown a relatively strong trend. The news of the malfunction and shutdown of the Iranian device has increased market expectations, driving up the coastal basis and improving the overall trading atmosphere. The inland market has also trended strongly. Some olefin plants in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have continued to purchase externally, increasing the demand of the main downstream. There is also an expectation of pre - National Day restocking among downstream enterprises, and the traditional downstream has actively followed up. Methanol enterprises have smoothly sold their products, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices. However, due to the poor overall profit of the traditional downstream, the cost pressure has restricted the increase in methanol prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The domestic methanol supply this week shows a situation of "decreased domestic production, reduced imports, but increased inventory at ports". The total production capacity utilization rate is 84.58%, and the weekly output is 1.9193 million tons, both showing a month - on - month decline because the output of the production capacity involved in maintenance and production reduction is more than the loss of the production capacity involved in recovery. The import volume has shrunk, with this week's import volume at 432,500 tons, a decrease of 3.87%. It is expected that the arrival volume next week will be 348,500 - 350,000 tons, a decrease of 23.24%. The 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran has malfunctioned and shut down [2] Demand - This week, the domestic methanol demand shows a situation of "pressure on the main downstream and differentiation in the traditional downstream", and the overall demand lacks resilience. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants is 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the load of MTO plants that purchase methanol externally is 69.06%, a significant month - on - month decrease of 9.75%. The shutdown of some MTO plants in the northwest is the main drag. The traditional downstream is differentiated: the formaldehyde industry is driven by the increase in the device load in North and Central China; the acetic acid industry has a slight increase in operation due to the restart of Anhui Huayi's device and the recovery of Nanjing Celanese's load; downstream industries such as dimethyl ether and MTBE are weak [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory shows a situation of "accelerated inventory accumulation at ports and a slight increase inland", and the supply - demand mismatch has increased market pressure. The increase in inventory is mainly due to the concentrated arrival at the supply end and weak demand. At ports, the arrival of foreign vessels has remained at a high level, Iranian goods have been unloaded intensively, and the previously delayed arrival of goods has been concentrated in storage. The supply at ports has been continuously abundant. However, the demand - side support is insufficient, the overall load of MTO plants is at a relatively low level, and enterprises such as Xingxing have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slowdown in the port pick - up speed and weak inventory digestion. Overall, the port inventory is close to the historical high. Inland, the inventory pressure in the inland market is relatively mild, with a month - on - month slight increase of 2.31%, mainly because the operation in the main production areas in the northwest has slightly declined, and the improvement of short - distance transportation in some areas has alleviated the inventory accumulation rhythm. The malfunction and shutdown of the 1.65 million - ton/year methanol plant of Bushehr in Iran have a certain positive impact on the port inventory accumulation [2] Profit - This week, the overall methanol profit has improved, with different processes showing differentiation. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.97%; the full - cost profit of coal - to - methanol in the northwest is 126.74 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 55.55%); the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei is 303 yuan/ton (month - on - month + 3.41%); the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest has narrowed by 48 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in methanol prices, the profits of industries such as MTO in the downstream are mostly under pressure [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - On September 10, sources said that when Trump talked with EU officials, he clearly proposed, as part of the pressure on Russia, to urge the EU to impose a "secondary tariff" of up to 100% on China and encourage the EU to take similar measures against India. The Houthi armed forces confirmed a ballistic missile attack on Israel [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see; Arbitrage: MA1 - 5 positive spread. Areas of risk concern include downstream demand, olefin external procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]