日度策略参考-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Palm Oil (medium to long term), Other Oils (fourth quarter) [1] - Bearish: Anti -内卷 products, Black metals, Coke, Coking coal, Benzene ethylene [1] - Sideways: Treasury bonds, Silver, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial silicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Shanghai rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Big - three products, PE, PVC, LPG [1] Core Views - Short - term stock index futures discount widening and liquidity drive may offer long - position opportunities during short - term index adjustments; asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] - The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support for gold prices, and the price may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices for copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals, but factors such as inventory accumulation may put pressure on some metal prices [1] - For agricultural products, although short - term factors may cause price fluctuations, the long - term bullish logic for some oils remains unchanged [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as production resumption, production increase plans, and changes in supply and demand affect product prices, with some products facing downward pressure and others showing short - term adjustment risks [1] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Gold: The approaching Fed rate cut in September provides support, and it may remain strong at high levels in the short term [1] - Copper: U.S. inflation data in line with expectations and the approaching consumption peak season may lead to stronger prices [1] - Aluminum: Fed rate - cut expectations and the approaching consumption peak season are favorable, but high inventory may put pressure on prices [1] - Alumina: Output and inventory are increasing, but the price is close to the cost line, with limited downward space [1] - Zinc: Macro sentiment improvement supports the non - ferrous sector, but continuous inventory accumulation pressures zinc prices, with a narrow rebound [1] - Nickel: Short - term supply concerns and approaching stainless - steel peak season may lead to a short - term strong - side shock, but long - term primary nickel surplus pressure remains [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material price increases and inventory reduction, with short - term strong - side shock operation [1] - Tin: With improved macro sentiment and expected demand improvement in the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in shock [1] Black metals - Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore: Valuation returns to neutral, with unclear industrial drivers and warm macro drivers, showing a sideways trend [1] - Anti -内卷 products: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - Coke, Coking coal: Supply - demand imbalance, with supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: MPOB report shows slight inventory accumulation, with short - term callback risk and long - term bullish logic [1] - Other oils: USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the fourth - quarter bullish logic remains unchanged [1] - Cotton: New - crop cotton has a high - yield expectation, with short - term supply tightness and acquisition game as the focus [1] - Sugar: New - sugar pre - sale price is lower, with limited short - term downward space and expected sideways - weak trend [1] - Soybeans: 9 - month USDA report is bearish, but the U.S. market is strong, with limited downward space for the domestic market and short - term sideways movement [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil, Fuel oil: Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase plan, and Fed rate - cut expectations coexist, with a loose fundamental situation [1] - Shanghai rubber: Raw material cost support is strong, but inventory reduction is slow and short - term market sentiment is weak [1] - BR rubber: Attention should be paid to inventory reduction progress and autumn device maintenance [1] - PTA: Domestic production recovers, the basis declines rapidly, and downstream polyester starts to operate at a high load [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis strengthens, but new device production and increased hedging pressure the market [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and market delivery willingness weakens [1] - Benzene ethylene: Supply increases significantly, and domestic import pressure rises [1] - Big - three products: Limited upward space due to weak domestic demand, with cost - end support [1] - PE, PVC: Sideways - weak trend due to factors such as limited maintenance support and supply pressure [1] - LPG: Crude oil production increase and other factors suppress upward movement [1]