集运日报：班轮公司不断下调运价中东冲突持续升级盘面处于筑底过程不建议继续加仓设置好止损-20250915

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst continuous rate cuts by liner companies and the escalating Middle - East conflict, the market is at the bottom - building stage. It's not advisable to increase positions. Given geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4]. - With the continuous reduction of spot freight rates by liner companies, pessimism spreads. The market continues to decline due to unchanged supply - demand in the spot market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - On September 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1566.46 points, down 11.7% from the previous period; SCFIS (US - West route) was 980.48 points, down 3.3% [3]. - On September 12, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 903.32 points, down 11.71% from the previous period; NCFI (European route) was 729.42 points, down 14.78%; NCFI (US - West route) was 1216.14 points, down 9.13% [3]. - On September 12, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1398.11 points, down 46.33 points from the previous period; SCFI European line price was 1154 USD/TEU, down 12.24%; SCFI US - West route was 2370 USD/FEU, up 8.27% [3]. - On September 12, the China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; CCFI (European route) was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; CCFI (US - West route) was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. - On September 12, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1157.6, with a decline of 5.27%. The trading volume was 27,400 lots, and the open interest was 47,600 lots, a decrease of 1896 lots compared to the previous day [4]. Economic Indicators - In August, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [3]. - In August, the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7); Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it's recommended to lightly test long positions around 1200 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Due to the volatile international situation, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt arbitrage [5]. - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when prices rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the next direction [5]. Special Regulations - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5]. - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].