国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250915

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides investment outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). The outlooks range from bullish to bearish, with different trends and strategies recommended for each commodity [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Expected to be weak in the short term, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PXN compression positions should be stopped at a profit below $220. The domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%), and several domestic and overseas plants have restarted or are expected to restart. The PTA load is 76.8% (+4%), and future PTA plant restarts and new installations are expected [11]. - PTA: Likely to be weak, with a positive spread strategy for the 11-01 contract and a reverse spread for the 1-5 contract. PTA processing fees are in a downward trend, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, which will have a negative impact on PTA [12]. - MEG: Expected to be weak, with a reverse spread strategy for the 1-5 contract. Supply pressure is increasing, and the polyester load is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Rubber - Expected to have a wide range of fluctuations, with a neutral trend intensity. The market is affected by news of new tariff reforms in Mexico, which may increase the pressure on domestic tire exports [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Facing increasing fundamental pressure and short-term volatility, but with support from macro expectations. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to increased inventory pressure. It is recommended to short at high valuations [20][23]. Asphalt - Showing stable sales, with prices decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The weekly production decreased by 1.2% compared to the previous week, and both factory and social inventories decreased [25][40]. LLDPE - Expected to have a medium-term oscillatory market. PE demand is improving due to the peak season for agricultural film production, and supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The polyethylene social inventory is relatively low, and the overall pressure is not significant [41][42]. PP - The market may be weak in the short term, but caution is needed when shorting at low levels in the later stage. The market may be oscillatory in the medium term. Short-term demand has improved, but cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Expected to be weak in the short term. The market is currently under pressure due to insufficient export profits and high alumina production and inventory. The market is difficult to resonate between futures and spot before alumina starts stocking [49][51]. Pulp - Expected to oscillate. The market is stable, with high port inventories and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory digestion and macro news [55][58]. Glass - The price of glass sheets is stable. The domestic float glass market has mixed price changes, with slow market transactions [60][61]. Methanol - Expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure from high supply and support from improving fundamentals and anti-monopoly policies. The port inventory has increased significantly [63][66]. Urea - Expected to be weak, with a focus on spot transactions and macro sentiment. Although exports are accelerating, they are unlikely to compensate for the weak domestic demand. The overall inventory has increased [68][70]. Styrene - Expected to be bearish in the medium term. The cost center has shifted downward due to OPEC production increases, and the short-term downward space for pure benzene and styrene has expanded [72][73]. Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and stable demand [74][76]. LPG - Expected to have a short-term narrow and strong oscillation [78]. Propylene - Expected to be weak at high levels in the short term. The PDH operating rate has decreased, and the MTBE and alkylation operating rates have also declined [79]. PVC - Expected to oscillate at a low level. The PVC market has high production and inventory, and exports may slow down due to policy disturbances [88][90]. Fuel Oil - Short-term rebound with increasing volatility. Low-sulfur fuel oil has a slight rebound, and the price difference between high and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [91]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2510 contract is under pressure, while the EC2512 and EC2602 contracts are expected to have wide fluctuations [93].