甲醇周报：港口库存高企，甲醇或延续震荡-20250915

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly due to high port inventories and expected high import supplies. The methanol spot market performed well driven by the favorable inland market and positive macro - expectations. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Before the substantial destocking of methanol ports driven by improved supply - demand, the methanol futures price may fluctuate within a range, and a short strangle strategy can be considered [6][8][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures trended weakly. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,367 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol inventories hit a record high, but prices were slightly stronger due to macro - benefits and news. In the inland market, downstream buying sentiment was positive due to increased olefin external procurement and low enterprise inventories [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% week - on - week decline. More devices were under maintenance than restarted [13][15] - Downstream Demand: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products showed different trends. For example, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 64.69%, up 0.31 percentage points from the previous week [18] - Enterprise Inventory: As of September 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% week - on - week decline. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a 3.91% week - on - week increase [22] - Port Inventory: As of September 10, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, an 8.59% week - on - week increase. Ports continued to accumulate inventory [24] - Profit: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples improved. The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased, and the losses of natural - gas - based methanol narrowed [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, more domestic methanol devices are expected to restart than be under maintenance. China's methanol production is expected to be about 1.9449 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.71%, an increase from last week [31] - Downstream Demand: The operating rates of downstream products are expected to change. For example, the olefin industry's operating rate is expected to rise, while the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to decrease slightly, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [32][34] - Overall Trend: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [35]