宝城期货原油早报-20250915

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and the intraday trend being volatile and bullish. The main reasons are the enhanced geopolitical risks and the small rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night of last Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract closed down 1.59% to 486.8 yuan/barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price will maintain a volatile and bullish trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Market Fundamentals - In August, the average OPEC+ crude oil production was 4.24 billion barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Since the production increase started in April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 1.48 million barrels per day, with the largest increase coming from Saudi Arabia and other core Middle Eastern oil - producing countries [5]. 3.3 Geopolitical Factors - A recent drone attack by Ukraine on an important crude oil export hub in Russia's Baltic Sea, which loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day, has enhanced geopolitical risks and led to a small rebound in crude oil prices [5].