SH周报：周内烧碱区间震荡上下驱动均不足-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda market showed a range-bound oscillation during the week, with insufficient upward and downward drivers [3][7]. - There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside potential may also be significant. Near-term contracts are supported by peak-season expectations and procurement sentiment, with strong spot prices. The market activities related to the chemical industry also provide strong incentives. In the short term, the market may run in line with the spot market. However, the 01 contract is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the spot price may decline again after the peak season fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Prices - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price tracking needs to consider regional characteristics. The low - concentration caustic soda market price remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda was 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2768.75 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week and 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2763.75 yuan/dry ton) at the end of the week. Some local prices in Shandong decreased, while other areas remained stable [15]. - The report also provides historical price data of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, with a daily update frequency [19][21][28]. 3.2 Price Spreads 3.2.1 Model Spreads - The report shows the price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with daily updates [30]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - It presents the regional price spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions, such as the spreads between Jiangsu and Shandong, Zhejiang and Shandong, etc., with a daily update frequency [30][34][36]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production this week is expected to be 831,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. Maintenance this week was mainly concentrated in North China, Central China, and Northwest China, with a slight increase in the impact compared to last week. Some enterprises in the Northwest and North China regions resumed production or increased their loads, leading to an increase in output [37]. - The report also provides historical data on the weekly operating rate and production of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, with a weekly update frequency [38][42]. - It lists the maintenance situations of chlor - alkali plants, including long - term shutdown capacities, current maintenance, and planned future maintenance. The total impact on the converted - to - 100% production this week is expected to be 25,830 tons [45]. - The operating status of flake caustic soda plants is also detailed, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned operations of various manufacturers [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The supply of alumina increased slightly this week. As of September 11, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [52]. 3.4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 87.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%. Some viscose plants in Xinjiang restarted operations [52]. 3.4.3 Dyeing Industry - As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The production rhythm of dyeing factories is stable, with an increase in the storage of grey fabrics, but overall in small to medium - sized batches. The market is divided in terms of orders, with stable domestic orders for autumn and winter fabrics and no obvious improvement in export orders [52]. 3.5 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 242,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%. The downstream procurement demand was good this week, and the alkali plants had smooth sales, resulting in a decline in inventory. The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 24,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.37%. The market trading atmosphere remained stable, enterprises mainly delivered pre - sold orders, and some major manufacturers reduced flake caustic soda production, leading to a decrease in inventory [68]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires about 2.15 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12 - 18% of the total cost, and about 2300 - 2400 kWh of electricity, accounting for about 60% of the total cost [72]. - In terms of the cost side, the domestic industrial salt market was in a consolidation stage this week. The price of well - mine salt was narrowly fluctuating, and the price of sea salt remained stable. The price of thermal coal was weakly stable. The supply of coal was relatively stable, and the demand was weak, with limited market trading activity [72]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side increased compared to last week, with a slight weakening of the cost side and strong prices in the liquid caustic soda market [73]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [82][83][87]