美国非农年度数据大幅下修91.1万,资金面继续收敛,债市延续弱势
Dong Fang Jin Cheng·2025-09-15 07:59
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, major repo rates rose, the bond market remained weak, convertible bond market indices declined, and yields of US and major European 10-year government bonds generally increased [1]. - The significant downward revision of US non-farm annual data may lay the foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, indicating a slowdown in the US labor market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - At the press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan", the MIIT announced that during the "14th Five-Year Plan", China's manufacturing added - value is expected to increase by 8 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, and China has built a large - scale network infrastructure [3]. - The SAMR issued a document to improve the exit mechanism for business entities, and the new regulations will take effect on October 10th [3]. - In August, national enterprise sales revenue grew rapidly, with manufacturing sales growing faster than the overall level, and high - end and digital manufacturing showing good growth [4]. 3.1.2 International News - The US non - farm employment data for the year ending March was revised down by 911,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 9th, international crude oil futures prices rose, and natural gas prices slightly increased, while COMEX gold futures prices fell [7]. 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 9th, the central bank conducted 247 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 870 million yuan due to the maturity of 255.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On September 9th, the liquidity tightened, and major repo rates increased. For example, DR001 rose 5.93bp to 1.416%, and DR007 rose 2.66bp to 1.479% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On September 9th, affected by concerns about redemption fees and tightening liquidity, the bond market was weak. Yields of 10 - year treasury and CDB bonds increased [13]. - Bond Tendering: Several bonds were tendered on September 9th, with details such as issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities: On September 9th, 4 industrial bonds had transaction price deviations of over 10%, including significant drops and rises [15]. - Credit Bond Events: Companies such as Orient Fashion, Nanyang Transportation Construction Investment Group, Oceanwide Holdings, and Shandong Hengbang Smelting announced relevant events [16]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indices: On September 9th, A - share indices and convertible bond market indices all declined, with most stocks and convertible bonds falling [17]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: There were announcements regarding creditor's meetings, litigation disputes, new bond listings, and regulatory approvals for convertible bonds [19][20]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - US Bond Market: On September 9th, yields of US bonds across all maturities generally increased, and yield spreads narrowed. The inflation - protected treasury bond's break - even inflation rate rose [21][22][23]. - European Bond Market: On September 9th, 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [24]. - Price Changes of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds: As of the close on September 9th, there were price changes in Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, with details of daily and monthly changes provided [26].