如何看待科技板块再度上涨？

Group 1: Market Review - Most major market indices rose last week, with the STAR 50 having the largest increase of 5.48% [7][8][13] - In terms of major industry performance, the real estate and information technology indices performed relatively well, with weekly changes of 6.05% and 4.94% respectively. The healthcare and financial indices performed weakly, with weekly changes of -0.28% and -0.20% respectively [7][8][13] - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries rose. The industries with larger increases were electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, rising 6.15%, 5.98%, and 4.81% respectively. The industries with larger declines were banks, petroleum and petrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, falling 0.66%, 0.41%, and 0.36% respectively [7][14][15] - Last week, the average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A was 23,264.15 billion yuan (the previous value was 26,032.01 billion yuan), at a very high historical level (96.00% of the three - year historical quantile) [7][18] - As of September 12, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A was 22.25, up 0.38 from last week, at the 90.20% of the historical quantile (in the past 5 years). Among industries, 26 out of 30 Shenwan primary industries saw valuation (PE_TTM) repairs [7][22] Group 2: Market Observation How to view the recent upward movement of the A - share technology sector? - The current market's focus is on whether the technology sector can continue to lead the market. The policy has identified technological innovation and new - quality productivity as the main lines, and the Fourth Plenary Session in October is expected to clarify the direction. Overseas, the industrial logic of AI, computing power, and semiconductors is still in the expansion phase. Although there are phased redemptions of ETFs such as the STAR Market, northbound capital trading remains high, and margin trading balances have reached new highs, indicating that funds are adjusting their structures rather than exiting. However, there is a redemption trend in STAR and ChiNext ETFs, and industrial capital is reducing holdings at high levels, indicating continued pressure for funds to realize profits [5] - In terms of capital, long - term funds are providing support, leveraged funds are continuously flowing in, and some industrial capital is taking profits. As of September 11, the margin trading balance was 2.34 trillion yuan, still at a historical high. The average market guarantee ratio remained at around 287.25%, indicating generally optimistic investor sentiment. The subscription scale of ETFs such as the Dividend Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index turned positive last week, showing that long - term funds have increased their allocation to low - level weights and high - dividend directions and still firmly hold the technology main line. Northbound capital's average daily trading volume remained above 250 billion yuan last week. The STAR Market still has capital divergence, with STAR Market ETFs continuing net redemptions last week, in contrast to the net subscriptions of ChiNext ETFs. In the second week of September, the net reduction of major shareholders was about 16.355 billion yuan, a significant increase from the first week of September [5] - External events may boost the technology main line. In mid - to late September, if the China - US economic and trade negotiations achieve substantial results, it may boost investor sentiment. The Fourth Plenary Session in October is expected to focus on technological innovation and new - quality productivity, strengthening long - term technology industry policy expectations. In the short term, due to stricter restrictions from Anthropic on Chinese - related enterprises, the domestic substitution logic (such as AI applications like kimi) is expected to continue to attract market attention. Oracle's better - than - expected performance in the US has driven the overseas AI industry chain, which may also have a spill - over effect on related A/H stocks [5] Policy signals and market characteristics - The recent advancement of financial anti - corruption has sent a clear policy signal that risk prevention is the primary principle of financial supervision. The market expects policy support for the capital market, but the regulatory tolerance for leverage and bubbles has decreased. This round of the market is more likely to show a "zig - zag and rapid rotation" structural characteristic rather than a comprehensive bubble - driven bull market in 2015. Future market constraints include changes in the proportion of leveraged funds, overall valuation levels (stock - bond cost - effectiveness), and interest rate pressure from local government debt [6] Investment suggestions - The level of this round of adjustment is generally similar to that in mid - December last year. In the short term, the adjustment of high - level technology, growth, and small - and medium - cap sectors is not yet complete, and it is not suitable to chase high. If the market declines again, opportunities can be seized to lay out brokerage firms and some technology leaders at low levels. Currently, the allocation focus should be on defensive directions, including high - to - low rotations within the technology sector, dividend sectors (such as electricity), cyclical sectors, and Hang Seng Technology favored by foreign capital [6] Group 3: Economic Calendar - This week's domestic economic data includes the year - on - year change in the housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities in China, the unemployment rate, the year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in total retail sales of consumer goods, and the cumulative year - on - year change in urban fixed - asset investment [24] - Overseas economic data includes the month - on - month change in US core retail sales, the year - on - year change in US retail sales, the year - on - year change in US industrial output, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast, the one - year forecast of the US federal funds rate, the Fed's interest rate decision, the Fed FOMC's economic forecast, and the Fed FOMC's monetary policy statement [24]