山金期货黑色板块日报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market focus has shifted to verifying the actual downstream demand. The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy may cause certain disturbances to the market. There are concerns that the future demand recovery may fall short of expectations due to the ongoing bottom - building process in the real estate sector [3]. - For steel products, the demand for rebar recovers slowly while that for hot - rolled coils recovers quickly. For iron ore, the supply is abundant with high global shipments, and the port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand: Rebar production has decreased for two consecutive weeks, factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, apparent demand has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and social inventory has increased for nine consecutive weeks. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 3.4 tons week - on - week, factory inventory decreased by 3.5 tons, social inventory increased by 17.4 tons, and the total inventory increased by 13.9 tons. The apparent demand increased by 15.5 tons week - on - week, with the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increasing by 20.8 tons [3]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the upper 10 - day moving average of rebar exerts significant pressure. Hot - rolled coils are relatively stronger than rebar, supported by the 60 - day moving average but facing some pressure from the middle track of the Bollinger Bands [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions and take profits at low prices. Adopt a low - level oscillation strategy [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Recently, the profitability of sample steel mills has declined due to the sharp increase in coke prices. After the military parade, the molten iron output of steel mills has returned to the pre - parade level. The global iron ore shipments are at a high level, and the future arrival volume is expected to rise. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing [5]. - Technical Analysis: After the 01 contract broke through upwards, it pulled back. Whether it is a real breakthrough remains to be seen [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude. If the upward breakthrough is proven to be false, consider short - selling [5]. 3.3. Industry News - Shanxi Coking Coal announced that Shuiyu Coal Mine resumed production on September 12, with an expected impact on raw coal output of about 180,000 tons due to a 15 - day shutdown [8]. - The inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China increased by 5.08% week - on - week to 69,940 tons, reaching the highest level in the past five weeks. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises reached a seven - week high, increasing by 6,300 tons to 166,800 tons [8]. - The second round of coke price cuts has started. Tangshan and Xingtai steel mills plan to cut the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on September 15, 2025 [8]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 3.43 percentage points week - on - week to 83.83%, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased by 4.39 percentage points to 90.18%, the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 0.87 percentage points to 60.17%, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 11.71 tons to 240.55 tons [8]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports increased by 24.15 tons to 13,849.47 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.50 tons to 331.28 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 30.40 tons to 14,456.12 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 14.06 tons to 344.39 tons [9]. - In early September, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities increased by 320,000 tons to 9.2 million tons, a 4.2% increase. Compared with the beginning of the year, it increased by 2.61 million tons (39.6%), and compared with the same period last year, it increased by 360,000 tons (4.1%) [9]. - The total inventory in cities this week was 9.3918 million tons, a 2.25% increase from last week [10].