美国8月CPI数据点评：市场开始预期3次降息的可能

Inflation Data - The U.S. August CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 2.7% previously[3] - The August CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a 0.2% increase last month[3] - Core CPI for August also grew by 3.1% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the previous month[3] Market Expectations - Market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with a 99% probability of at least two cuts and an 83% probability of three cuts following the data release[8] - The probability of a September rate cut is nearly 100%, with a 9.2% chance of a 50 basis point cut after the data release[8] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields slightly declined, with the 3-month yield down by 1 basis point, the 2-year yield down by 2 basis points, and the 10-year yield down by 3 basis points[9] - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by 1.36%, S&P 500 up by 0.85%, and Nasdaq up by 0.72%[9] Inflation Components - Core goods inflation continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%[6] - Used car inflation rose by 6% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month, indicating a continued upward trend[7] Economic Outlook - Long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with a slight increase in short-term expectations, as the Michigan survey indicated a rise to 4.8% in August from 4.5% in July[21] - The Federal Reserve's inflation outlook suggests a moderate inflationary environment, with tariff impacts beginning to show[46]