尿素早评20250915：等待现货企稳-20250915

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].