长江期货贵金属周报-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the total non - farm employment in March, and the U.S. August PPI data was lower than expected, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year, and the precious metal prices continued to rebound. - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident. The results of trade negotiations between the U.S. and multiple countries have been finalized, and the tariff increase is generally lower than market expectations, leading to an increase in the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week exceeded expectations. Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. - The U.S. economic data is trending weaker, and the market is worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects. It is expected that the precious metal prices will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. September interest rate decision announced on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. August PPI data being significantly lower than expected and the market's increased expectation of the number of Fed interest rate cuts within the year, the price of U.S. gold continued to rise. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3,681 per ounce, up 1.1% within the week. The upper resistance level is $3,740, and the lower support level is $3,600 [6]. - Due to the same reasons, the price of U.S. silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 2.8%, closing at $42.7 per ounce. The lower support level is $40.5, and the upper resistance level is $44 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The factors mentioned above lead to the continuation of the precious metal price rebound. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The U.S. economic data is weakening, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the U.S. September interest rate decision announced on Thursday [11]. - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 1,347 kilograms to 1,210,376.87 kilograms this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 9,615 kilograms to 52,950 kilograms. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 281,642.11 kilograms to 16,404,708.42 kilograms this week, while SHFE inventory decreased by 18,840 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms. - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 255,351 contracts, an increase of 10,919 contracts compared with last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 50,889 contracts, a decrease of 1,848 contracts compared with last week. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously and within the range. Refer to the operating range of 815 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 10 - contract and 9,700 - 10,500 for the Shanghai Silver 10 - contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators Although there are a lot of data charts provided, no specific analysis or summary information is given in the text. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The U.S. August CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.9%, the same as the expected value and higher than the previous value of 2.7%. - The U.S. August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected value of 3.3% and the same as the previous value [28]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - From April 2024 to March 2025, the total non - farm employment in the U.S. was revised down by 911,000, with an average monthly decrease of 76,000. The expected revision was 682,000, and this is the largest revision since 2009. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching the highest point in nearly four years, further reflecting the cooling of the labor market. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in August increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3%, recording the largest increase in seven months; the year - on - year growth rate was 2.9%, also higher than 2.7% in July. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with market expectations [29]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 1,347 kilograms to 1,210,376.87 kilograms, and SHFE inventory increased by 9,615 kilograms to 52,950 kilograms. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 281,642.11 kilograms to 16,404,708.42 kilograms, and SHFE inventory decreased by 18,840 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 9, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 255,351 contracts, an increase of 10,919 contracts compared with last week. - As of September 9, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 50,889 contracts, a decrease of 1,848 contracts compared with last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Focus on This Week - On Tuesday (September 16), 20:30, the U.S. August retail sales month - on - month rate. - On Thursday (September 18), 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 [40].