汽车行业2025H1、2025Q2业绩综述：国内价格战盈利能力承压，海外普遍表现较好

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a recovery in demand driven by policies, with total demand continuously improving and strong growth in the new energy sector [12][18]. - The performance of Hong Kong-listed automotive companies has been notably strong, with most achieving positive sales growth [68]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Policy-driven demand recovery has led to a total improvement, with wholesale sales in H1 2025 reaching 13.526 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and registration volume at 10.598 million units, up 9.5% [12][14]. - New energy vehicles (NEVs) continue to show high growth, with H1 2025 wholesale sales of 6.436 million units, a 37.2% increase, resulting in a penetration rate of 47.6% [18][19]. - Export volume for passenger vehicles in H1 2025 was 2.577 million units, up 10.2% year-on-year, with Q2 2025 exports reaching 1.401 million units, a 13.9% increase [22]. - The passenger vehicle sector's total revenue in H1 2025 was CNY 951.1 billion, a 9.4% year-on-year increase, with Q2 2025 revenue at CNY 522.6 billion, up 10.8% [26][27]. Profitability - The profitability of the passenger vehicle sector has declined, with H1 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 28.2 billion, down 7.9% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 3.0% [35][36]. - In Q2 2025, net profit dropped to CNY 13.9 billion, a 25.4% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.7% [35][37]. - The gross margin for the passenger vehicle sector in H1 2025 was 17.1%, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, and in Q2 2025, it was 16.6%, down 1.8 percentage points [47][50]. Operational Efficiency - The operating cash flow for the passenger vehicle sector in H1 2025 was CNY 59.23 billion, accounting for 6.2% of revenue, while Q2 2025 saw a significant increase to CNY 78.24 billion, representing 15.0% of revenue [62][62]. - Inventory turnover days improved to 60.7 days in H1 2025, down 3.9 days year-on-year, and further decreased to 59.9 days in Q2 2025 [65][66]. Two-Wheelers - The market for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles is rapidly expanding, with strong new vehicle supply driving growth for manufacturers [8]. Commercial Vehicles - The truck segment is experiencing short-term pressure, awaiting the release of incentives for vehicle replacements [8]. Market Performance - Hong Kong-listed automotive companies have generally achieved positive sales growth, with notable increases from companies like Xiaopeng and Li Auto [68].