天然橡胶产业周报：宏观情绪消退，胶价重回基本面定价区间-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro sentiment dominates the short - term trend of rubber prices, while supply - demand fundamentals provide support and resistance. The cost support remains strong due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign production areas. The rubber sentiment has subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices has dragged down the rubber sector. Long - term demand requires continuous and effective macro - policy incentives, and export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of Indonesian standard rubber is relatively loose, and the delivery pressure of the NR2510 contract is not large. In the long - term, the supply of domestic full - latex is limited, and the RU warehouse receipts are in a seasonal low. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad also affects the rubber market, and there are risks such as US tariff policies and EU anti - dumping investigations [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect rubber prices. Weather in production areas affects cost support, and long - term demand depends on macro - policies. Export growth has risks [1]. - Near - term trading: 1 - 7 months, Indonesian standard rubber imports increased by about 8% year - on - year, and the price difference between NR contracts and other standard products may remain in the short term [3]. - Long - term trading: Domestic production area weather disturbances lead to slow growth of full - latex raw materials. RU warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the focus is on the remaining tapping window this year. The macro - economic situation at home and abroad has both positive and negative impacts, and there are risks [7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price range: The reference oscillation range of RU2601 in the next week is 15700 - 16100; that of NR2511 is 12500 - 13000. The trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation [11]. - Strategy suggestions: In the wide - range oscillation, it is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis. For basis, month - spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies, specific operations and entry points are provided [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The monthly price range of rubber RU is 15800 - 16300, and that of 20 - number rubber NR is 12700 - 13200 [13]. - Risk management strategies: Different strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading, option trading, and corresponding trading directions, hedging ratios, and entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerned Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive information: Heavy - truck sales continued to grow. In 2025, from January to August, China's heavy - truck cumulative sales increased by about 13% year - on - year. From January to August, China's automobile production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12.6% respectively, and automobile exports increased by 13.7%. There is a high probability of La Nina phenomenon in the fourth quarter, which may affect Southeast Asian production areas [14]. - Negative information: Indonesian standard rubber exports increased. Malaysia's rubber subsidies stabilized supply. Global natural rubber production and consumption had different trends in July. In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased [15]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Tropical disturbances are generated in the South China Sea, and Typhoon "Mina" may affect China's Taiwan to Guangdong area. Pay attention to the rainfall in Thailand in September. This week is a key period for central banks around the world to announce policy interest rates, especially the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - Domestic market: The rubber price fluctuated last week, and the price center of the RU01 contract remained around 15900, and that of the NR11 contract was around 12700. Spot prices fell, and the basis of Thai standard, Indonesian standard, and NR was at a seasonal high. The RU month - spread changed little, and the NR term structure changed significantly [18][22][26]. - Foreign market: The foreign market trend was similar to the domestic one, and the exchange rate affected the pricing of foreign rubber. The term structure of Japanese RSS3 changed, and Singapore TRES20 maintained a contango structure [29][31]. - Virtual - to - physical ratio and sentiment indicators: The bullish sentiment of rubber fluctuated. The RU virtual - to - physical ratio was moderate, and the NR ratio was at a relatively high level in the same period of history [33]. - Internal - external price difference tracking: The internal - external price differences of RU and NR were differentiated. The price difference between RU and Japanese RSS3 was high but narrowed. The supply of NR and Singapore 20 - number rubber was expected to be loose, and the exchange rate affected the price difference [36]. - Variety price difference analysis: The deep - shallow price difference of dry rubber continued to expand. The price difference between natural and synthetic rubber increased [40][47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw material cost: Domestic raw material prices rose and fell. In Hainan, glue prices decreased slightly, and cup - glue prices increased slightly. In Yunnan, glue prices remained high. In Thailand, the water - cup price difference decreased [50]. - Processing profit: The delivery profit of domestic full - latex in Yunnan was low, and the profit of TSR9710 was good. The processing profit of imported smoked sheets increased slightly, while the profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber were negative [56][58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Main - producing country output: Thailand's output decreased in July. Indonesia's output may decrease slightly in August. Malaysia's output decreased year - on - year, and Vietnam's output is expected to increase. India's output was at a low level [60]. - Import situation: In August, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased. From Thailand, the import of Thai standard increased, and Thai mixed decreased. Indonesian imports increased in July, and exports may remain growing in August [62]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - Main - producing country total demand: In July, China's natural rubber consumption was stable year - on - year. The demand in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia decreased, while that in Vietnam and India increased. China's rubber demand and exports are expected to remain strong, but international trade situations need attention [70]. - Tire production and sales: The start - up rate of semi - steel tires increased, and the inventory decreased slowly. Tire exports increased, but the average export price decreased. The downstream inventory is high, and short - term production and sales are stable, but long - term risks exist [73]. - Replacement demand: China's logistics industry is stable, and the replacement demand is expected to be stable. However, long - term fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [78]. - Supporting demand: Last week, domestic passenger car wholesale sales decreased. China's heavy - truck sales were strong in the first half of the year, and the supporting demand is expected to be resilient. Automobile exports increased significantly in August [80]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures inventory: RU warehouse receipts decreased rapidly, and NR warehouse receipts increased steadily [84]. - Social inventory: The domestic dry - rubber social inventory decreased slightly. The light - colored rubber inventory continued to decrease, and the dark - colored rubber inventory also decreased slightly. The inventory in Yunnan's non - standard rubber increased [87].