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原周报(LG):原木期货11合约偏弱震荡-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-15 08:29

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is "volatile", indicating that the log futures are expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of logs is bearish as the number of departing ships from New Zealand and the total shipment volume decreased in August 2025, and some foreign merchants lowered their quotes. The demand, inventory, and trade profit are neutral. The overall investment view is that the log futures will be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82% and an 8% decrease from July. Some foreign merchants lowered their quotes [3] - Demand: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. Shandong ports had an average daily outbound volume of 33,400 cubic meters, a 5.65% decrease, and Jiangsu ports had 21,600 cubic meters, a 4.85% decrease [3] - Inventory: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters and a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters and a 2.05% week - on - week decrease [3] - Trade Profit: After the decline in the foreign market quotes, the import profit has been repaired. The import profit of domestic traders for 3.9 medium A logs is about - 38 yuan/m³ [3] - Investment View: The log futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile state due to the decline in the foreign market quotes [3] - Trading Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral and arbitrage trading are provided. Attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: Last week, the log futures contracts were in a weak and volatile state. The foreign market quotes dropped significantly in September 2025, and some spot specifications also declined. However, the inventory has not reached the inflection point of accumulation, so the overall trend is weak [7] - Futures and Spot Prices: The log futures and spot prices are presented in a graph, showing the relationship between the basis, futures closing price, and spot price [8] - Futures Positions: As of September 12, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 22,108 lots, a 0.7% decrease from the previous week. The position of the main log futures contract 2511 was 15,449 lots, a 4.4% decrease from the previous week [12] - Spot Prices: As of September 12, 2025, the prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu for different specifications are stable [16] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - Import Volume: In July 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9533 million cubic meters, a 10.26% month - on - month decrease and a 3.90% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was about 14.2897 million cubic meters, a 6.57% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from New Zealand and of radiata pine also showed different changes [20] - Shipping and Shipment: In August 2025, about 44 ships departed from New Zealand, a decrease of 3 from July. The total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from July [22] - Import Cost and Profit: As of September 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine is 113 - 115 US dollars/JASm³, with an import profit of about - 38 yuan/m³. In August 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 125 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, with an export profit of about 1.4 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29] - Inventory: As of September 5, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.94 million cubic meters, a 1.01% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory was 2.39 million cubic meters, a 2.05% week - on - week decrease. The inventory in different regions and of different species also changed [33] - Outbound Volume: From September 1 - 7, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 61,200 cubic meters, a 1.29% decrease from the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu ports also decreased [36] - Wooden Square Price and Processing Profit: As of September 12, 2025, the wooden square price in Shandong was 1,270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. In Jiangsu, it was 1,270 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged, and in Jiangsu, it was - 14.6 yuan/m³, a 10 - yuan/m³ decrease [39]