Guoxin Securities·2025-09-15 08:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [6] Core Views - The company's adjusted profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 89%, with revenue reaching 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [8] - The core local commerce segment remains the primary source of profit, with revenue of 65.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [2] - Increased subsidies have negatively impacted revenue growth, particularly in the delivery service segment, which saw a decline in growth rates [2][11] - New business losses have narrowed sequentially, with revenue of 26.49 billion yuan in Q2 2025, up 22.8% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an operating profit of 230 million yuan, down 98% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 0.2%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 1.6%, down 14.9 percentage points year-on-year [17] Core Local Commerce - Revenue from core local commerce was 65.35 billion yuan, with delivery services, commissions, online marketing, and other services contributing 23.66 billion, 24.95 billion, 13.55 billion, and 3.19 billion yuan respectively [11] - The operating profit for this segment was 3.72 billion yuan, down 75.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 5.7%, a decrease of 19.4 percentage points [11] New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 26.49 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, improving by 3.1 percentage points sequentially [12] - The company plans to focus on core areas and accelerate the expansion of its supermarket business, aiming to cover all first- and second-tier cities in China [12] Future Outlook - The company expects significant losses in the core local commerce segment in Q3 2025 due to increased strategic investments and competitive pressures [20] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to -7.7 billion, 31.76 billion, and 46.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of -117%, -46%, and -35% [20][21]