股指周报：股指继续上行，市场成交缩量-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of economic and corporate earnings on the stock index is neutral. In August, the growth rate of social financing declined for the first time, with a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan in new social financing. The growth rate of government bond net financing decreased year - on - year for the first time since November 2023. Corporate short - term loans reached a record high, while household short - term loans hit a new low. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 increased slightly, but the growth rate slowed down [3]. - Macroeconomic policies have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. The Ministry of Finance will maintain policy continuity and stability, and strengthen flexibility and foresight. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts within the year has increased [3]. - Overseas factors have a slightly positive impact on the stock index. In August, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. Sino - US leaders will hold talks [3]. - Liquidity has a positive impact on the stock index. As of September 11, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. However, last week, the average daily trading volume decreased compared with the previous week [3]. - The investment view is to adjust and go long. Next week, there will be a large number of domestic and foreign macro - events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and Sino - US leaders will hold talks. The trading volume of the market has decreased, and the driving force of liquidity on the stock index has weakened. It is recommended to control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust and go long [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Driving Forces: Economic and corporate earnings are neutral; macro - policies are slightly positive; overseas factors are slightly positive; liquidity is positive [3]. - Investment View and Strategy: The investment view is to adjust and go long. The trading strategy is to adjust and go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Stock Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.38% to 4522; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7; the CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, electronics, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, and non - ferrous metals led the gains last week, while only the comprehensive, banking, pharmaceutical and biological, and social service sectors declined [10]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 21.88%, and the open interest increased by 0.05% [12]. - Contract Premium and Discount: As of September 12, different contracts of various stock index futures had different premium or discount rates [16]. - Cross - Variety Spread Performance: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 were at different historical percentile levels [20]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - Funding and Macro - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. Next week, 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and there will also be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [27]. - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance: As of September 11, the margin trading balance of A - shares increased, and the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was at a high level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week decreased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - China's Macroeconomic Indicators: In August, indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and social financing showed different trends. For example, the growth rate of social financing stock declined for the first time after rising for 10 consecutive months [37]. - Economic Fundamentals - Real Estate: The real estate market showed signs of weakness, such as a decline in the growth rate of real estate investment [37]. - Economic Fundamentals - Consumption: The growth rates of various consumption indicators showed different trends, with some categories experiencing growth and others decline [48]. - Economic Fundamentals - Manufacturing: The growth rate of the manufacturing industry showed a certain degree of slowdown, but different sub - sectors had different performances [49]. - Corporate Earnings: The earnings of different stock indices and industries showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit of the CSI 500 was 7.30% in the first half of 2025 [56]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - Recent Macro - Policy Trends: A series of policies have been introduced in the real estate, consumption, and finance sectors. For example, Shanghai and Shenzhen have adjusted real estate purchase restrictions, and the government has introduced a fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans [61][62]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In August, the US manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate increased slightly, and the number of new non - farm jobs decreased. The growth rates of CPI and core CPI were within market expectations, while the year - on - year growth rates of PCE and core PCE were 0% [70][73]. - Trump Team's Statements and Measures: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had an impact on global trade and Sino - US economic and trade relations [79][81]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation Levels: As of September 12, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [87]. - Sector Profitability and Valuation Levels: Different sectors had different levels of return on equity, revenue growth rates, and price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios [91].