Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the glass and soda ash industries is bearish [3][4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the glass and soda ash industries are poor, and prices are under pressure. The glass industry has increasing supply, potential demand improvement in the peak season, and high inventory. The soda ash industry has high supply, neutral demand, and weakened cost support [3][4] - The overall market sentiment is not good due to the "anti - involution" logic and weak reality. The trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Glass: Supply is slightly increasing with a daily output of 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th), an industry start - up rate of 76.01% (unchanged), and a capacity utilization rate of 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). Demand may improve marginally in the peak season. Inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy suggests a cash - and - carry arbitrage [3] - Soda Ash: Supply is at a high level with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). Demand is neutral with stable short - term direct demand but poor terminal demand. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons. The investment view is bearish, and the trading strategy recommends a cash - and - carry arbitrage [4] Part Two: Futures and Spot Market Review - Glass: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1180 (-9), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (+16). The basis fluctuated, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased [6][20] - Soda Ash: The price fluctuated this week. The main contract closed at 1290 (+25), and the Shahe spot price was 1197 (+5). The basis and the 01 - 05 spread both fluctuated [11][20] Part Three: Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Glass Supply: Production increased steadily. The daily output was 160200 tons (+0.38% compared to the 4th). The start - up rate was 76.01% (unchanged), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08% (+0.3 percentage points). The production profit fluctuated [23] - Glass Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders were weak, and the real - estate completion data was poor. However, inventory decreased by 2.33% week - on - week to 61.583 million heavy cases [28] - Soda Ash Supply: Production reached a high level again, with a weekly output of 761100 tons (+1.24% week - on - week). The alkali plant profit fluctuated [31] - Soda Ash Demand: Demand was neutral. Short - term direct demand was stable, but terminal demand was poor. Inventory decreased by 1.35% week - on - week to 1.7975 million tons [32]
玻璃纯碱周报：供给扰动传闻，碱玻承压-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-15 08:25