机构抛压导致债期进一步走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the market declined in the first four trading days and rebounded slightly on Friday. The pressure for bond futures adjustment mainly came from concerns about fund redemption fees and the cancellation of tax exemptions for funds. Funds became the main force in selling off. There were rumors of large - scale redemptions by major banks and the suspension of the release of redemption and subscription details. However, after the redemption ended, the funds of bond funds returning to proprietary trading would still be a source of allocation for the bond market. In the first half of the week, the market adjusted rapidly, with extremely fragile sentiment and high pressure to sell off in advance, and insufficient market support, leading the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds to rise above 1.8% and 2% respectively. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved marginally due to incremental news, including rumors of the Ministry of Finance's dissatisfaction with the rising yields and communication with the central bank, discussions among major banks, the Financial Department of the Ministry of Finance, and the central bank about restarting treasury bond purchases, a 600 - billion - yuan outright repurchase operation by the central bank, and weaker - than - expected August financial data [4]. - Looking forward, the recent decline in bond futures provides a good entry opportunity. The current stabilization of the bond market is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stabilizing capital market with reduced capital rotation between the stock and bond markets, and the attractiveness of bond yields after the previous adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for the domestic economy. With the marginal decline of the economic driving effect of land finance and debt, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. The coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, with monetary policy taking the lead, are expected to sustain the bullish bond market [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market performance: The market declined in the first four trading days of this week and rebounded slightly on Friday. The adjustment pressure of bond futures was mainly due to concerns about funds, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose. On Thursday and Friday, market sentiment improved due to multiple incremental news [4]. - Market data: The report provides the closing prices, weekly price changes, weekly trading volumes, and weekly open interest changes of various bond futures contracts such as TL2509.CFE, TL2512.CFE, etc. [5] - Outlook: The recent decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is currently supported by three factors, and in the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals remain favorable for bond futures [8] PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple graphs related to liquidity, including those on open - market operations (money supply, money withdrawal, and net money supply), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, and various interest rates such as deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and upper - exchange pledged repurchase rates [11][12][14] PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report provides data on various arbitrage indicators of treasury bond futures, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures [44][52][59][65]