原油周报（SC）：地缘风险溢价升高，短期油价止跌震荡-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment, the summer consumption peak season ends, US inventories accumulate, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthens. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating performance [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - long term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an overall increase in global crude oil production. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,553 million barrels per day, up 2.34 million barrels per day from 2024. In August, OPEC countries' crude oil production increased compared to July according to different reports [3] - Demand (Medium - long term): EIA, OPEC, and IEA all have neutral to slightly positive views on demand. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid demand to be 10,381 million barrels per day, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2024 [3] - Inventory (Short term): US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending September 5, with various refined oil inventories also showing different changes [3] - Industrial Policy (Medium - long term): OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October 2025, with a daily increase of about 137,000 barrels. Some OPEC+ countries need to compensate for excess production [3] - Geopolitics (Short term): The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, and Trump's statement about possible new tariffs on Asian and Indian buyers of Russian oil add geopolitical premium to oil prices [3] - Macro - finance (Short term): The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut rising from 8% to 11.9% and a 25 - basis - point cut at 88.1% [3] - Investment View: Oil prices will show an oscillating performance [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Review: Short - term geopolitical disturbances led to a halt in the decline and an oscillating trend of international oil prices. As of September 12, WTI crude oil rose by $0.63 per barrel (+1.02%), Brent crude oil rose by $1.21 per barrel (+1.84%), and SC crude oil fell by 6.7 yuan per barrel (-1.39%) [8] - Month - spread & Internal - external Spread: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [11] - Forward Curve: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24] - Crack Spread: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [27] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - demand Fundamental Data - Production: In August, OPEC production increased, non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day. However, the US production showed a decline in exports and an increase in domestic production [45][55][79] - Inventory: US commercial inventories increased by 393,900 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels, Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][90] - Demand: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased significantly, and refinery operating rates fluctuated slightly. In China, refinery capacity utilization rebounded slightly [107][116] - Macro - finance: US Treasury yields declined, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [138] - CFTC Position: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [147]