债市周观察：美联储降息或为四季度债市逆风转顺风的支撑性条件之一

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week (September 8 - 12, 2025), the bond market experienced significant volatility and adjustment, showing a pattern of "falling first and then stabilizing." The 10 - year Treasury bond yield broke through the 1.8% key point, reaching a new high since April. The adjustment was mainly driven by the public - fund fee - rate new rules and the strong performance of the stock market [1]. - The current bond market is in a headwind period. Although the first pressure point of 1.8% has been broken through, in the long - term, the bond market has a certain basis for recovery as this breakthrough is mainly due to the stock market's strong sentiment and bond - fund redemption shocks rather than a fundamental shift in the fundamentals [2]. - There are four catalysts for the bond market in the fourth quarter: the possible restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading operations, the potential Fed rate cut in September, the continued pressure on the fundamentals, and the ongoing Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest - rate Bond Last - week Data Review - Funds Rate: From September 8 - 12, the funds rate first rose and then fell, with an overall slight increase compared to the previous week. DR001 closed at 1.36% on September 12, R001 closed at 1.40%, DR007 closed at 1.46%, and FR007 closed at 1.46% [8]. - Open - market Operations: The central bank's reverse - repurchase net investment was 196.1 billion yuan last week, and it announced a 600 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation on September 15 [1]. - Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The Sino - US 6 - month interest - rate spread was - 222BP, and the 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 209BP and - 214BP respectively, with the inversion narrowing [15]. - Term Spread: The Chinese bond term spread remained basically unchanged, while the US bond term spread slightly decreased. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds was 44BP, and that of US bonds was 50BP [15]. - Interest - rate Term Structure: The Chinese bond yield curve remained basically unchanged, while the US bond yield curve had its middle section slightly move up [16]. 2. Real - estate High - frequency Data Tracking - First - tier Cities: The transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained in a low - level volatile state. The average daily transaction area was 64,400 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was 610 units. September 12 was the weekly high, and September 14 was the weekly low [23]. - Top Ten Cities: The transaction data of commercial housing in the top ten cities rebounded compared to the previous week, with an average daily transaction area of about 94,000 square meters, an increase of about 9,500 square meters per day compared to the previous week [23]. - 30 Large and Medium - sized Cities: The commercial - housing transactions in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 190,000 square meters, and the average daily number of transactions was about 1,728 units. September 11 was the weekly peak [23].