有色金属周报：供应收缩预期减弱，但需求提供支撑-20250915

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The supply of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [5][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 4.02%. The trading volume reached 2.96 million lots (-160,000), and the open interest reached 309,400 lots (-54,600) [7]. - The basis premium is 1,290 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In August, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,670 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; lithium mica production was 8,980 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 44.2% [12]. - In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [16]. - In July, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [20]. - Lithium Battery Recycling - In September, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries is 27,623 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [23]. - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,963 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. - In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%. - In August, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 12,982 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [28][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 21%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% [37]. 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,513 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. - In August, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 61%, and the production was 2,647,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 59% [40]. - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,491 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. - In July, the import volume increased and the export volume decreased [45]. - Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. - In July, the export volume increased [50]. - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In September, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%. - In September, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 42% [51]. - Electrolyte - In September, the production of electrolyte was 191,480 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [59]. 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. - In August, the loading volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [62]. - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month-on-month increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [65]. - Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. - In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month-on-month increase of 27.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 37.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.1% [70]. - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of smartphones in China was 100.4 million, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. - In August, the production of microcomputers in China was 27.69 million, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [73]. 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore has declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has dropped by $29/ton, and the price of lithium mica has dropped by 90 yuan/ton [78]. 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,580 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,262 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,072 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,390 tons [83]. - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 686 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 115 tons [84]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Sell short at high prices or buy put options after the volatility decreases. - Operating range: 65,000 - 77,000. - Overall, the supply remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [88].