供给阶段性收紧，铅价突破万七关口

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of primary and secondary lead has tightened, and the lead price has rebounded to over 17,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply supplement of imported crude lead and the risk of the lead price rising and then falling [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% to 16,775 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price increased by 0.83% to 17,040 yuan/ton; London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 1.64% to 2,017.5 US dollars/ton [10] - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -90 US dollars/dry ton. The smelter's profit recovered to 18.9 yuan/ton as of September 5 [27] 2. Maintenance and Production Cuts, Phased Tightening of Primary Lead Supply - The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 66.68%. Some smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia had maintenance and production cuts, while the production in other regions remained stable [28][33] 3. Multiple Smelters Shut Down, Secondary Lead Operating Rate Dropped to a Low Level - As of September 12, the average price of waste batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The losses of large and small secondary lead enterprises improved to -110 yuan/ton and -322 yuan/ton respectively [41][47] - As of September 11, secondary lead raw material inventory was 129,450 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,300 tons. The operating rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 22.3%, and the weekly production decreased to 32,100 tons [50][53] 4. Buy on Dips, Pay Attention to Downstream Pre-holiday Stockpiling - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 72.14%. The orders for energy storage batteries were stable, those for electric bicycle batteries increased steadily, while those for automobile batteries and the battery replacement market were relatively weak [60] 5. Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of September 5, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the import profit was -306.41 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [72] 6. Partial Factory Warehouses Transferred to Social Warehouses - As of September 11, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 67,000 tons, an increase; the factory warehouse of primary lead's main deliverable brands was 9,550 tons, a decrease [84] - As of September 12, SHFE refined lead inventory was 66,600 tons, a slight decrease; as of September 11, LME inventory was 229,600 tons, a decrease [87]