利率周报：债市或已企稳-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The bond market adjusted significantly this week. The narrowing year - on - year decline in August's CPI and the four - month consecutive rise in core CPI indicate marginal improvement in domestic demand, but food prices still drag. The narrowing year - on - year decline in PPI and the end of eight - month consecutive decline in the month - on - month data are mainly supported by policy - driven industrial product price repairs. The export growth rate in the first eight months dropped to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed to - 1.2%, reflecting the resilience of external demand but uneven domestic demand repair. The main reasons for the bond market adjustment this week may include policy expectation disturbances and the continuous disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect. The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report is bullish on the bond market in the long run, expecting the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2][10][82]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with the same month - on - month figure as last month, and core CPI rose to 0.9%. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 2.9%, the first narrowing since February this year, and the month - on - month change turned flat, ending eight - month consecutive decline. - In the first eight months, the total value of China's goods trade imports and exports was 29.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The export growth rate dropped by 0.4 pct to 6.9%, and the import decline narrowed by 0.4 pct to - 1.2%. - At the end of August, M2 balance was 332.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.6 trillion yuan, 4.7 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. - The US CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year, a new high since January, and 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected. Core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month in August, both in line with market expectations [12][17][19][21]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 7, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 4.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 4.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. - As of September 12, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 35782.6 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 41.0%. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 2.13 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 33.5% [24][28]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 7, the weekly container throughput of ports was 6.646 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. - As of September 11, the average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 37.473 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. - As of September 7, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 3.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. - As of September 7, the weekly railway freight volume was 79.043 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the weekly highway truck traffic volume was 5.436 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [34][36][39]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of September 10, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.3%, a year - on - year increase of 1.8 pct. - As of September 11, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 pct. - As of September 11, the soda ash operating rate was 87.5%, a year - on - year increase of 12.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 79.8%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 pct. - As of September 12, the average PX operating rate was 87.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 74.7% [42][44]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.488 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. - As of September 5, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.234 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 12, the average weekly pork wholesale price was 19.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 26.3% and a 1.3% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average vegetable wholesale price was 5.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 16.0% and an 8.7% increase compared to four weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.9 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly price of thermal coal at northern ports was 682.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8% and a 1.0% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly WTI crude oil spot price was 62.6 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% and a 1.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago. - As of September 12, the average weekly spot price of rebar was 3138.0 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a 5.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago; the average weekly spot price of iron ore was 804.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 14.2% and a 1.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [48][53][55]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 12, overnight Shibor was 1.37%, up 1.40 BP from September 8. R001 was 1.40%, down 1.01 BP from September 8; R007 was 1.47%, down 0.53 BP from September 8. DR001 was 1.36%, up 0.76 BP from September 8; DR007 was 1.46%, up 0.52 BP from September 8. IBO001 was 1.40%, up 0.84 BP from September 8; IBO007 was 1.50%, up 0.37 BP from September 8. - Most Treasury yields rose. On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.61%/1.87%/2.18%, up 0.2 BP/0.3 BP/4.1 BP/7.3 BP respectively from September 5. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year yields of China Development Bank bonds were 1.58%/1.82%/2.03%/2.26%, up 4.1 BP/6.3 BP/15.8 BP/6.8 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year yields of local government bonds were 1.54%/1.84%/2.03%, up 8.7 BP/0.5 BP/2.1 BP respectively from September 5. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.55%/1.68%/1.57%/1.71%, up 12.1 BP/1.1 BP/12.1 BP/0.1 BP respectively from September 5. - As of September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8%, down 4 BP/up 3 BP/up 3 BP/down 2 BP respectively from September 5. - On September 12, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.10/7.12, down 45/154 pips respectively from September 5 [58][63][65][71][74]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.7 years, a decrease of about 0.1 years compared to last week (September 5). - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds investing in credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past month, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of September 12, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 5) [77][79]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The short - term bond market may be suppressed by sentiment, but the report remains bullish on the bond market. The year - on - year growth rate of prices in August was generally lower than expected, and this may be a stage of economic growth momentum transformation and income distribution structure adjustment. The year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports in August both declined. Coupled with the strong performance of consumption policies in the first half of the year, there may be some pressure on consumption and exports in the second half of the year. It is necessary to continuously monitor the continuation of incremental policies and price improvements. The report believes that the economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year, the capital market will remain loose, the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases, and the self - operating allocation demand of banks will support the decline of bond market interest rates. The recent unexpected rise of the stock market has led to a significant adjustment in the bond market, but the bond market will ultimately return to fundamental and capital - based pricing. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly. The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and the current 10Y Treasury yield of about 1.8% is highly cost - effective [80][82].