地产行业周报：一线持续放松叠加板块滞涨，短期关注板块轮动机会-20250915

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Real Estate Stronger than the Market (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector has shown steady growth this week, with a cumulative increase of 5.98%. The sector's performance has lagged behind the market, indicating potential for rotation and catch-up opportunities. Key factors include ongoing policy easing in first-tier cities and a year-to-date increase of only 7.9% in real estate, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.9% [3] - Concerns regarding the de-stocking rate of "good houses" have risen, necessitating further interest rate cuts and cost reductions. The supply of "good houses" remains relatively scarce due to reduced land acquisition and new construction by developers in recent years. Adjustments in second-hand housing prices are seen as a response to the de-stocking of new homes [3] - The report suggests maintaining a mid-term perspective on quality companies benefiting from industry trends, with a focus on short-term stock price realization. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others with stable mid-term performance [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate sector's stock performance this week outpaced the CSI 300, with a rise of 5.98% compared to 1.38% for the index. The current PE ratio for the real estate sector stands at 66.62, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 14.13, indicating a high valuation relative to historical levels [3][23] Market Monitoring - New home transactions in key cities decreased by 7.3% week-on-week, with 14,000 units sold. In contrast, second-hand home transactions increased by 8.5%, with 17,000 units sold. Year-to-date, new home transactions have dropped by 24.3% compared to the previous year [10][12] - Inventory levels remained stable, with a total of 9,129 million square meters across 16 cities and a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months [13] Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - China Overseas Development: Strong land acquisition and sales performance, with a low valuation of 0.4 times PB and a dividend yield of 3.7% [5] - Greentown China: Recognized for quality and strong land acquisition, with a market cap of 229 billion RMB and a sales ratio of 15% [5] - China Resources Land: Stable dividend and strong operational performance, with a projected dividend yield of 4.37% [5] Policy Environment - The Ministry of Natural Resources encourages market-oriented approaches to activate idle land, indicating a supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [7]