尿素产业风险管理日报-20250915

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Bo (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021070) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% [3] - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% [3] - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% [3] - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950; buy 50% UR2601P1850 put options; sell 50% UR2601C1950 call options [3] - For low - level purchase inventory and hope to purchase based on orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750; sell 75% UR2601P1650 put options [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Domestic urea prices continue to fall, with sufficient market supply, rising social inventory, and persistent domestic supply - demand pressure [4] - After the parade, industrial and compound fertilizer demand has a slight regional increase, but overall impact is limited, and downstream acceptance of current prices is low [4] - Upstream order - taking pressure is emerging, and urea factories are reducing prices to take orders. Continuously monitor 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [4] - In the medium term, the second batch of urea exports supports demand, and inventory may not accumulate significantly in the short term [4] - Agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [4] Group 5:利多解读 - Urea exports are confirmed. Futures are expected to have a wide - range fluctuation pattern with enhanced downward support [5] Group 6:利空解读 - Domestic policies suppress the market, and the association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, negatively affecting spot sentiment [6]