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Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Weekly Report | 2025 - 09 - 15 - Author: Li Shue, Cotton Futures Analyst - Report Date: 2025 - 09 - 15 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the specific rate cut amplitude remains a concern. Market expectations for the rate cut amplitude are somewhat divided based on US economic data [3][32]. - In 2025, the national cotton planting area was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 43.58 million mu, with a total output estimated at 7.108 million tons [3][32]. - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, while they may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run [3][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 One - Week Data Overview - The CRB commodity price index closed at 301.72 points on September 12, up 3.95 points from September 5. The Wenhua Commodity Index on September 12 was 163.7, down 1.42 points or 0.86% from September 5 [2][10][31]. - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. The main Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on September 12, down 140 yuan from September 5, with the position decreasing by 6,893 lots to 506,000 lots [2][10][31]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. Gold rose by 40.9 dollars per ounce, crude oil rose by 0.63 dollars per barrel, US soybeans rose by 18.5 cents per bushel, and US corn rose by 10 cents per bushel [10]. - The import cotton CNF quotes of various countries decreased. For example, the US E/MOTM decreased by 0.3 cents per pound, and Brazil M decreased by 0.6 cents per pound [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Domestic Market Basic Situation 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On September 12, the raw material prices showed mixed trends compared with September 5. Polyester staple fiber and viscose decreased, while CCI3128 increased and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased [14][15]. 3.2.2 Yarn Price Trends - On September 12, the prices of domestic and imported yarns decreased compared with September 5 [18][20][21]. 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On September 12, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,446 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 1,303 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM (sliding - scale duty) was - 143 yuan per ton, also wider than that on September 5 [22]. - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices narrowed on September 12 [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of September 12, the Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts were 5,710 lots (280,000 tons), with 0 effective forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 245,000 tons, down from 280,000 tons on September 5 [26]. 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis - On September 12, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,446 yuan per ton, wider than that on September 5 [28]. 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis - The latest PPI data in the US added complexity to the Fed's policy debate. In China, the consumer market was generally stable in August, and the industrial producer price index improved [30]. - At the end of August, the national cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a significant decrease from the previous month and lower than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was slightly decreasing, and the yarn and grey fabric inventories were also decreasing [30][31]. - Technically, the MACD green column of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was shrinking, the DIFF and DEA formed a dead cross, and the KDJ indicator also formed a dead cross, indicating weakening technical indicators [34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From August 22 - 28, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 55,542 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week. The shipment of upland cotton was 35,085 tons, also a 37% increase. The net signing of Pima cotton this year decreased by 62%, and the shipment decreased by 69% [39]. - As of August 26, the CFTC fund net long position was - 71,720 lots, a decrease of 10,706 lots from the previous week [41]. 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On September 12, the ICE cotton futures main December contract was reported at 66.76 cents per pound, up 0.67 cents or 1% from September 5. Technically, the KDJ indicator formed a golden cross and diverged upward, indicating strengthening technical indicators [42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - In the medium - and short - term, cotton may continue to be stable and slightly strong, while it may face pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long run. - Downstream textile enterprises can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton when the raw material prices fall [44].