产业矛盾各异，钢矿强弱分化

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 15, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ribbed Bars: The main contract futures price fluctuated upward with a daily increase of 0.93%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ribbed bars have not improved, and industrial contradictions have accumulated, putting pressure on steel prices. The relative positives are rising costs and peak - season expectations. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: The main contract futures price showed a relatively strong fluctuation, with a daily increase of 0.87%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coils has returned to a high level, while demand is strong, and the fundamentals are stable, supporting the price to run relatively strongly. However, the improvement in demand needs to be tracked. If demand weakens under high supply, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and the price will be under pressure again. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - Iron Ore: The main contract futures price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.31%, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore is fair, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the expectation of supply recovery remains. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not been substantially improved, and the upward expectation of high - valued ore prices is weakening. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - National Economic Operation in August: In August, macro - policies coordinated to work, and the national economy generally ran stably with progress in transformation and upgrading. But there are still many unstable and uncertain external factors, and the economy still faces risks and challenges [6]. - Fixed - Asset Investment from January to August: From January to August 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,261.11 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. In August, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 64.61 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; the investment in the second industry was 1,182.46 billion yuan, an increase of 7.6%; the investment in the third industry was 2,014.04 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.4% [7]. - Steel Production in August: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron output was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel output was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron output was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel output was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [8]. Spot Market - Black Metal Spot Quotes: Spot prices and price changes of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, Tangshan steel billets, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, as well as prices and price changes of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index are provided [9]. Futures Market - Main Contract Futures Prices: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore futures are presented. For example, the closing price of ribbed bars was 3,136 yuan, with an increase of 0.93%; the closing price of hot - rolled coils was 3,370 yuan, with an increase of 0.87%; the closing price of iron ore was 796.0 yuan, with a decrease of 0.31% [11]. Related Charts - Steel Inventory: Charts show the weekly changes in ribbed bar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils (steel mills + social inventory) [14][16][19]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, the seasonal inventory of 45 ports in China, and the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills [21][22][25]. - Steel Mill Production: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][30]. 后市研判 - Ribbed Bars: The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 67,500 tons month - on - month, continuing the downward trend from a high level. However, the scope for production cuts during the peak season is uncertain, and inventory has continued to accumulate to a high level, so the supply pressure has been relieved only slightly. Meanwhile, the demand for ribbed bars remains weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 40,000 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions running at a low level. Both are at low levels in recent years and show no signs of marginal improvement. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [33]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: Changes have occurred at both the supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, steel mills have actively resumed production, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, returning to a high level this year, increasing the pressure. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 208,000 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions have also rebounded. However, the output of cold - rolled products, the main downstream product, has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which may drag down the demand for hot - rolled coils. The relative positive is the emerging price advantage, and exports may improve marginally. The improvement in hot - rolled coils needs to be tracked. Key attention should be paid to demand changes [34]. - Iron Ore: Changes have occurred at both the supply and demand ends. After the end of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has increased significantly. Last week, the average daily pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills both rebounded, returning to previous high levels, and the expectation of restocking before the holiday has fermented, so the demand for ore is fair, continuing to support the ore price. However, it should be noted that industrial contradictions in the steel market are constantly accumulating, profits are continuously shrinking, and the room for demand growth is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline, but the overseas ore shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival of goods will bottom out and rebound, and combined with the rapid recovery of domestic ore supply, the ore supply is expected to increase. The subsequent trend of iron ore is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [35].