国债期货低位震荡整理为主

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, treasury bond futures continued to trade in a sideways consolidation pattern. The latest credit data was weak, increasing market expectations for easing policies in Q4, which is positive for treasury bonds. Currently, treasury bond futures are mainly influenced by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. In the medium to long term, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the need for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, resulting in limited upward momentum for treasury bond futures. In August, inflation was weak, credit demand from the real - sector was low, and the growth rate of consumption slowed marginally. Subsequently, the policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand. It is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will work together in Q4. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, diverting funds from bond purchases and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data in July and August indicates the stock - bond seesaw effect. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly trade in a low - level sideways consolidation pattern in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 15. This is the second such operation this month after a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month term outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5. In total, the outright reverse repurchase operations in September amount to 1.6 trillion yuan, with a maturity amount of 1.3 trillion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased roll - overs. - The People's Bank of China announced on September 15 that it conducted a 280 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9668 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, with the growth rate dropping 0.3 percentage points from July. After deducting price factors, the actual growth was 4.1%, and the actual growth rate accelerated by 0.2 percentage points. On a month - on - month basis, the total retail sales of consumer goods in August increased by 0.17%, with a faster month - on - month growth rate than in June and July [5]