工业硅期货周报-20250915

Group 1: Report Core View - During the week from September 8 to 12, 2025, the price of industrial silicon in the futures market fluctuated widely, while the spot price showed a sideways and slightly stronger consolidation. The main contract si2511 in the futures market fluctuated around 8,200 - 8,800 yuan/ton during the week, showing a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and downstream industries of industrial silicon continued to replenish stocks on dips [2] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Price - The price of industrial silicon futures showed a weak oscillatory trend within a range during the week, with a pattern of three up - days and two down - days. As of the weekend, the main contract of industrial silicon (si2511) dropped 75 points, closing at 8,745 points, with a maximum of 8,795 points and a minimum of 8,215 points. The position was 278,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased compared to the average level of the past period, which is in line with the characteristics of an adjustment and correction market [3] 2.2 Variety Market - In the weekly market of industrial silicon futures, the contract price of industrial silicon (si2608) was the highest and remained relatively stable, while the price of industrial silicon (si2510) was the lowest [6] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Spot Market Conditions - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon showed a sideways and slightly stronger consolidation. As of last Friday, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 was in the range of 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of 421 was in the range of 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of 3303 silicon was in the range of 10,200 - 10,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week [8] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - According to the data of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts for industrial silicon this week was 49,998 lots, an increase of 26 lots compared to last week. The short - term market is in a wait - and - see equilibrium state [9] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Latest News - In the second half of the week, the market was affected by market rumors related to energy consumption on the supply side of industrial silicon. The market trend was strong, and the quotes of silicon holders were adjusted upwards accordingly. Downstream industries mainly focused on inventory digestion and replenishing stocks as needed [10] 4.2 Technical Analysis - From the K - line chart of the futures main contract, the main contract of industrial silicon showed a wide - range consolidation this week. From the weekly K - line chart, it first declined and then rose during the week. Policy expectations will continue to ferment next week, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [11] Group 5: Market Outlook - Looking forward to the future, the current fundamentals of the industry are relatively loose, and the subsequent policy situation still needs to be observed. The demand side is also affected by supply - side policies, and the overall industry inventory is relatively high. Although there are disturbances in the market news, there is a lack of clear policy drivers, and the upside space of the market is currently limited. It is expected to mainly maintain an oscillatory trend within a range [13]