玉米周报：新粮卖压预期，盘面仍有下行空间-20250915

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on corn is "oscillating." Before any significant policy changes, given the expectation of selling pressure from the new - season bumper harvest and the decline in planting costs, the C01 contract is expected to have some downside potential. The trading strategy suggests a short - position for the C01 contract and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting the corn market, including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It concludes that in the absence of obvious policy changes, the corn market will oscillate due to the new - season bumper harvest selling pressure and the decrease in planting costs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: In the short - term, it is bullish; in the medium - term, it is bearish. Old - crop supply is tightening, new - crop has not been widely harvested. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, with an estimated port - collection price of 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area is slightly decreasing, but the yield per unit is expected to be good, maintaining an overall bumper - harvest expectation. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, reducing imported grain supply [3]. - Demand: Neutral to bullish. In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 33.1%. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short - term, supporting feed demand, but national policies may control pig inventories and weights, affecting long - term supply. The wheat - corn price difference is moving out of the substitution range. Feed enterprises have limited space to further compress inventories and have a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks. However, the downstream demand of deep - processing is poor, with processing profits in the red, forcing the operating rate to a low level and reducing deep - processing demand [3]. - Inventory: Bullish. North - port inventories have been continuously decreasing to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased this week. Feed enterprise inventories have declined to a historical low, and deep - processing corn inventories have also reached a low level [3]. - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level [3]. - Profit: Bearish. Pig farming remains profitable, broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red. Deep - processing starch and alcohol processing profits are deeply in the red [3]. - Valuation: Neutral. Considering the planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is moderately high [3]. - Macro and Policy: Neutral [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, the national average price, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port, the market price at Shekou Port, the spot price of corn starch in Shandong, the position of the corn futures contracts, and the spreads between different contracts [5][7][11]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Port and Transportation: North - port corn arrivals and the remaining vehicles for deep - processing in Shandong are presented. The Shekou - Jinzhou price difference and the shipping volume of corn from the four northern ports are also shown. North - port inventories have decreased to a low level, while south - port grain inventories have increased [20][22][35]. - Imported Grains: In July, corn imports were at a low level, while sorghum and barley imports increased [27]. - Feed Industry: Feed enterprise inventory days and monthly feed production are presented. The livestock and poultry industry has short - term high - inventory support for feed demand, but policies may affect long - term supply [42][44]. - Livestock and Poultry Farming: Pig prices are falling, and pig weights are at a high level. Broiler farming profits are declining, and layer farming is in the red [51][55][60]. - Deep - Processing Industry: Deep - processing corn consumption has slightly increased, but inventories have declined to a low level. Starch processing profits are in the red, and inventories are high. Alcohol production has a seasonal increase in the operating rate, but processing profits are in the red. The wheat - corn price difference has widened, moving out of the substitution range, and flour demand is weak [64][72][93]. 3.4 Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - The September report shows a slight downward adjustment of the corn stock - to - consumption ratio of major exporting countries in 2025/26. Global corn production and its distribution are presented, along with the export sales of US corn, including total and China - bound sales [113][117][120].