棉花（CF）：棉市区间震荡，关注新棉开秤

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "wait - and - see" for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced. Spinning capacity is in excess, and the high operating rate keeps the industrial demand for cotton firm. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating this week, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton has been stable. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level. The current absolute price of cotton is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bearish. The old crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced [3] - Demand: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and a high operating rate keep the industrial demand for cotton firm [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the Xinjiang double - 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton was stable [3] - Profit: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, inland spinning has a serious loss, and the yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level [3] - Valuation: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Domestically, increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment [3] - Investment View: Oscillation. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait - and - see; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The national cotton planting area in the first survey of 2025 is 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the Xinjiang cotton planting area is 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [8][9] - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationwide and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Inventory - The accumulation of finished product inventory has slowed down. Data on the raw material and finished product inventories of weaving and spinning mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [18][19][21] 3.2.3 Mid - stream Factory Load - The operating rate is declining. The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [25][26][27] 3.2.4 Mid - stream Spinning Mill Profit - Spinning mills are in the red. The immediate spinning profit and the yarn - cotton spot price spread are presented in the form of time - series charts [29][30][32] 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high. The inventories and finished product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size are presented in the form of time - series charts [34][35][36] 3.2.6 Import and Export - Domestic cotton and cotton yarn import data are presented in the form of time - series charts. US cotton exports to different countries show different trends: exports to China and Pakistan are at a low level, exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [39][41][50] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Basis - The basis is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in the form of time - series charts [63][64][65] 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Spread - The 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of time - series charts [67] 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Position - The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The position data of the 09 and 01 contracts are presented in the form of time - series charts [69][70][72] 3.3.4 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt - The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in the form of time - series charts [74][75] 3.3.5 Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton - The net long position, long - position proportion of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in the form of time - series charts [81][83][84] 3.3.6 US Cotton Month Spread - The US cotton 12 - 03 month spread shows a "Deep Contango" pattern, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [86][87]