黑色金属数据日报-20250915

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, as the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" arrives, the supply and demand of steel may shift from weak to strong. However, for steel prices to have an upward rebound drive, it requires confirmation of an upward acceleration in demand indicators. Currently, the price upward drive is not clear, and the next two weeks should focus on whether the peak - season demand accelerates upward [2]. - In the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market, the previous large - scale losses in the alloy industry have turned into profits, with supply increasing. Terminal demand needs to be verified during the peak season, and there is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric furnace starts, and inventory de - stocking pressure remains [3]. - In the coking coal and coke market, the second round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, but the coal - coke futures price decline space may be limited. Short - term trading is volatile, and mid - term investors can consider going long on dips [5]. - In the iron ore market, during the restocking period, iron ore has support, but its price increase height depends on the performance of steel demand. It is still recommended to buy on dips in the long term [6]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On September 12th, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3189 yuan/ton with a rise of 39 yuan and a 1.24% increase; HC2605 closed at 3368 yuan/ton with a rise of 21 yuan and a 0.63% increase. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a rise of 26 yuan and a 0.84% increase; HC2601 closed at 3364 yuan/ton with a rise of 22 yuan and a 0.66% increase [1]. - As of September 12th, the roll - screw spread was 237 yuan/ton with a decrease of 5 yuan; the screw - ore ratio was 3.91 with an increase of 0.02; the coal - coke ratio was 1.42 with a decrease of 0.01; the steel - making profit on the screw thread was - 62.68 yuan/ton with an increase of 30.65 yuan; the coking profit on the disk was 103.32 yuan/ton with a decrease of 8.49 yuan [1]. Spot Market - On September 12th, the Shanghai screw thread price was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; the Tianjin screw thread price was 3190 yuan/ton with no change; the Guangzhou screw thread price was 3240 yuan/ton with no change; the Tangshan billet price was 3010 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.35 with an increase of 0.7 [1]. - The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price was 3410 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3440 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan; the Guangzhou hot - rolled coil price was 3390 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan; the billet - material spread was 200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3010 yuan; the PB price at Rizhao Port was 791 yuan/ton with a decrease of 9 yuan [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis; pay attention to the contraction of the roll - screw spread of the 01 contract for disk arbitrage; and focus on reverse arbitrage (end - user buying hedging) for spot - futures arbitrage [7]. - For silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, industrial customers should pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage [7]. - For coking coal and coke, mid - term investors can consider going long on dips with last week's low as a reference [7]. - For iron ore, continue the strategy of buying on dips [7].