国际宏观资讯双周报-20250915

Economic Insights - The U.S. unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls underperforming expectations, leading to increased Fed rate cut expectations[14] - New Zealand's unemployment rate is projected to rise to 5.3% in Q2 2025, up from 5.1% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing labor market pressures[15] - The IMF forecasts a 3.2% economic growth for the Middle East and North Africa in 2025, with non-oil economic activities in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) contributing significantly[16][17] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S.-South Korea trade agreement includes a 15% tariff on South Korean goods, with South Korea committing to invest $350 billion in the U.S.[9] - South Africa may face export losses of $2.3 billion due to U.S. tariffs, with automotive exports to the U.S. plummeting by 82% in the first half of 2025[34][35] Financial Developments - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from B1 to Ba3, reflecting improved macroeconomic policies and a decrease in inflation from 75% in May 2024 to approximately 35% in July 2025[48] - The UAE's banking sector investments reached 774.3 billion AED (approximately $211 billion) by April 2025, marking a 16.2% year-on-year increase[18] Regional Economic Performance - The Philippines' GDP grew by 5.5% in Q2 2025, driven by a 7% increase in agricultural output, indicating a recovery from previous climate impacts[22] - Algeria's trade deficit reached $2.07 billion in Q1 2025, with oil and gas exports constituting 90% of total exports, highlighting vulnerabilities in export diversification[43][44]