银河期货花生日报-20250915

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of peanuts is still low, and downstream demand remains weak. Peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short term. The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is acceptable. The new - season peanut production is expected to increase, and the planting cost will decrease. Peanut futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7840, down 10 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 25 (up 38.89%) and an open interest of 438 (down 0.45%); PK510 closed at 7800, unchanged, with a trading volume of 6,694 (down 53.37%) and an open interest of 14,338 (down 20.70%); PK601 closed at 7792, down 18 (-0.23%), with a trading volume of 9,851 (down 18.96%) and an open interest of 40,281 (up 5.39%) [3]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 3.9 yuan/jin, stable; that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.15 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan was 4.3 - 4.35 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of peanuts in Junan, Shandong was 4.1 yuan/jin, stable. The price of imported Sudan refined new peanuts was 8150 yuan/ton, and that of Senegalese oil - peanuts was 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton, stable. The price of peanut oil was stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao was 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the 48 - protein peanut meal was 3260 yuan/ton [5][9]. - Price Difference: The PK01 - PK04 spread was - 48, down 8; the PK04 - PK10 spread was 40, down 10; the PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 18 [3]. 2. Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan decreased, while that in the Northeast increased. It is expected that the peanut spot price will be relatively stable in the short term. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, and the mainstream transaction price before the stop was 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, with the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8050 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Peanut 11 is oscillating at a low level. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. After stabilizing, one can try to go long on Peanut 05 [12]. - Monthly Spread: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Hold the short position of pk511 - P - 7600 [14]. 4. Related Attachments - The report provides six charts, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between Peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between Peanut 1 - 4 contracts [16][22][25].