黑色金属早报-20250915

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Type: Black Metal R & D Report [1][6][11][18] - Date: September 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Core View - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend last Friday night. There are differences between varieties, with building materials in the off - season. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [3]. Related Information - The eight - department plan aims for about 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a 3% year - on - year increase, with about 15.5 million new - energy vehicle sales, a 20% year - on - year increase [3]. - Last week, the scale of construction steel mill overhauls decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The production reduction due to line overhauls is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [3]. - Spot prices: Shanghai rebar is 3,220 yuan, Beijing is 3,160 yuan (-10), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,380 yuan, and Tianjin is 3,310 yuan (-10) [3][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Core View - Recently, coal mines and steel mills have gradually resumed normal production, and the supply and demand of coking coal have increased. The double - coking futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillating trend, with a bottom support and an upper limit. It is safer to go long at low prices, but do not expect too much increase [10]. Related Information - Last week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 82.7%, a 6.9% month - on - month increase. The daily output of raw coal was 1.856 million tons, a 156,000 - ton increase [8]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a 3.43 - percentage - point increase [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillating trend. It is safer to go long at low prices, but do not expect too much increase [12]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter the positive spread of coking coal 1 - 5 at low prices [12]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [12] Group 4: Iron Ore Core View - Last week, iron ore prices trended strongly. The terminal demand shows a pattern of weakening in China and high growth overseas. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [13]. Related Information - The Chinese government has taken measures to promote private investment, and China and the US have held economic and trade talks. The social financing scale and M2 have increased [13]. - The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 780 yuan (+3), and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract is 54 [13]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific clear strategy is mentioned in a unified way [12]. - Arbitrage: Not mentioned [12]. - Options: Not mentioned [12]. Group 5: Ferroalloys Core View - The supply side shows differentiation, and the demand side maintains a high level, but there is a risk of production reduction impacting raw material demand. The cost side supports ferromanganese - silicon. The market may be mainly bottom - oscillating this week [16]. Related Information - HeSteel has set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in September at 5,800 yuan/ton, a 230 - yuan/ton decrease from August [16]. - NMT has announced the shipping price of manganese ore to China in October 2025, which is flat compared with last month [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly engage in spot high - level hedging [17]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]