美股云计算及芯片行业点评：Oracle指引昭示云厂竞争格局变革，ASIC进入密集催化期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the cloud computing and semiconductor sectors, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [5][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditure (Capex) expectations for major cloud providers, with a projected total exceeding $380 billion for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55% driven by strong AI cloud order demand [5][9]. - Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) have surged to $455 billion, a 359% year-on-year increase, indicating robust future revenue potential [5][12]. - The report notes a divergence in Capex investment strategies among major cloud players, with some adopting a more aggressive approach compared to others [6][16]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing - Major cloud providers, including Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, are expected to collectively exceed $350 billion in Capex for FY25, with a year-on-year growth rate of 54% [9]. - Google has raised its Capex guidance for FY25 by $10 billion to $85 billion, while Meta has adjusted its guidance up by $1 billion to $69 billion [9][10]. - The report indicates that Oracle's Capex for FY26 is projected to reach $35 billion, with a significant increase in spending observed in FY26Q1 [6][14]. AI Computing Power - The boundaries between GPU and ASIC are becoming increasingly blurred, with a focus on hardware design capabilities and the synergy between hardware and software ecosystems [7][26]. - NVIDIA's introduction of the Rubin CPX chip marks a significant milestone in ASIC development, aimed at enhancing AI inference capabilities [7][26]. - Google is actively leasing its TPU chips to third-party cloud providers, indicating a growing maturity in the ASIC ecosystem [7][26]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation overview of key companies, including Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, with projected revenues and net profits for FY25 to FY27 [33]. - Microsoft is expected to generate $2,790 million in revenue for FY25, with a net profit of $1,000 million, reflecting a strong market position [33]. - Amazon's projected revenue for FY25 is $6,953 million, with a net profit of $846 million, indicating robust growth potential [33].