8月份经济数据解读：“反内卷”效果逐步显现，需求仍有待提振

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows signs of improved quality and prominent structural highlights, but internal momentum needs consolidation and demand requires further boosting. The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half, with the 5% annual target achievable [4]. - In the equity market, the foundation for a slow - bull market remains. The index is expected to oscillate strongly, and investors are advised to actively participate and focus on high - growth sectors. In the bond market, the upward movement is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for a trending long - position. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, with the expected performance being precious metals > industrial metals > energy products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month Economic Overview - Positive aspects: The service industry is highly prosperous, with the August service business activity index reaching 50.5%. New and old kinetic energy is accelerating transformation, and the "Two New" policies have strong supporting effects. The "Anti - involution" policy shows results, with the PPI ending its 8 - month decline. The capital activation degree increases, and the profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows [4][5]. - Challenges: Economic data awaits trend improvement, with the manufacturing PMI below the boom - bust line for 5 consecutive months. Internal growth momentum needs consolidation, overseas demand is uncertain, real estate drags on the economy, and the profit structure of industrial enterprises above designated size may further differentiate [4][6]. 3.2 8 - month Economic Sub - data Interpretation - Manufacturing PMI: It remains in a low - level oscillation, with the production index driving the slight rebound. High - tech and equipment manufacturing PMIs show an upward trend [7]. - Fixed - asset investment: The growth rate continues to decline, mainly due to real estate drag. However, high - tech investment remains prosperous [9]. - Consumption: The growth rate slightly drops, but the "National Subsidy" and service - consumption policies are expected to support future consumption [10]. - Exports: The short - term growth slows down, and the future trend is uncertain due to factors such as high - base effects, policy changes, and overseas economic conditions [11][13]. - Real estate: Sales continue to be weak, with both sales area and investment decline expanding. Second - hand housing prices have not stopped falling [14]. - Production: It maintains a high level of prosperity, with the added value of industries above designated size growing steadily. Manufacturing is the core support [15]. - Prices: The "Anti - involution" policy affects PPI. CPI is weak, mainly dragged down by food prices. PPI ends its decline, but the recovery of PPI depends on demand - side policies [18][19]. - Liquidity: The total social financing slightly exceeds expectations, but the structure needs improvement, especially the slow recovery of medium - and long - term credit demand [22]. - Profit: The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrows, and future profit growth depends on multiple factors [23]. 3.3 Future Economic Outlook - Overseas: The US economy shows signs of weakness, which may affect China's exports. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts will impact global liquidity [24]. - Domestic policy: A certain policy space will be reserved, and policies focus on long - term structural issues [25]. - Economy: The full - year economic growth rate is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half. Investment may continue to explore the bottom, consumption has certain support, and exports remain uncertain [25]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Equity market: The foundation for a slow - bull market exists. Investors are advised to focus on high - growth sectors such as self - controllability, energy storage and new energy, service consumption, and sectors benefiting from Fed rate cuts [27]. - Bond market: The upward movement is limited, and it is recommended to allocate when the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.8% [30]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies, and it is recommended to focus on precious metals [31].