石油石化行业周报：周内油价先涨后跌，中枢价格环比下降-20250915

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into market trends and forecasts that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases, but ultimately declining as supply forecasts were adjusted upward by EIA and IEA [1][2]. - OPEC+ has increased production significantly since May, with a total increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day from May to July, and plans to add 137,000 barrels per day in October [2]. - Demand forecasts for oil have been adjusted, with IEA predicting an increase of 740,000 barrels per day for 2025, while EIA's forecast is slightly higher at 900,000 barrels per day [3]. Supply Summary - OPEC+ has been increasing production, with a total increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August and September [2]. - IEA and EIA have raised their forecasts for non-OPEC+ countries' production, expecting increases of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026 [2]. - The supply surplus is expected to grow, with EIA projecting a surplus of 1.73 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.55 million barrels per day in 2026 [3]. Demand Summary - The demand for oil is expected to rise, particularly in Asia, but the growth in demand is not expected to match the increase in supply [3]. - EIA's forecast for 2026 indicates an increase in demand of 1.28 million barrels per day, reflecting a positive adjustment from previous estimates [3]. Inventory Summary - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.939 million barrels in the week ending September 5, indicating a build-up as the summer demand season ends [3]. - Gasoline inventories also saw an increase of 1.458 million barrels during the same period [3]. Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for U.S. oil companies developing new wells is approximately $65 per barrel, with larger companies having a breakeven price of around $61 per barrel [4]. - The operational cost for maintaining existing oil wells ranges from $26 to $45 per barrel, with larger companies needing about $31 per barrel [4]. - A significant portion of U.S. shale oil production is derived from new wells, which may not provide sufficient support for prices, as evidenced by oil prices falling below breakeven levels multiple times this year [4].