Huachuang Securities·2025-09-15 10:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 earnings with revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.1%. However, the gross margin decreased to 33.1% from 41.2% in the same period last year, and the adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, down 89.0% year-on-year [1][4] - The intense competition in instant retail is suppressing profits, and the recovery of profitability in the short term needs to be observed in terms of competitive dynamics and new business developments [1][4] - The core local business revenue reached 65.35 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, while new business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.49 billion yuan, driven by grocery retail and overseas expansion [1][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 337.59 billion yuan, 373.99 billion yuan, 427.68 billion yuan, and 489.47 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 10.8%, 14.4%, and 14.4% [3] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 43.77 billion yuan, -10.21 billion yuan, 15.78 billion yuan, and 38.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, -123.3%, 254.6%, and 144.3% [3] - The target price for the stock is set at 127.93 HKD, with the current price at 96.55 HKD, indicating a potential upside [4]