南华干散货运输市场日报：注意，乌克兰农产品发运“露脸”了-20250915

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, the commodity shipment volume remained high, and the demand for mainstream vessel types increased. The demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels increased significantly, and the BPI and BSI&BHSI freight rate indices continued to strengthen significantly on a week-on-week basis, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to maintain a relatively high increase. With the high demand for both agricultural and industrial product shipments, dry bulk carriers continued to benefit, and the spot freight rate index maintained an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis: Compared with the data on September 5th, the week-on-week increase of the mainstream vessel type freight rate indices continued to be significant. The BPI freight rate index increased by more than 10%, and the BSI&BHSI freight rate indices increased by more than 2%. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2,126 points, up 7.43% week-on-week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 3,070 points, up 8.29% week-on-week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 2,006 points, up 11.32% week-on-week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1,492 points, up 2.47% week-on-week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 804 points, up 2.16% week-on-week [5]. - FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index: On September 12th, the FDI composite index, FDI rent and freight index, and FDI spot freight index all declined, with a decline of about 1%. However, the rent and freight of most Panamax vessels in the FDI rent and freight index increased on a week-on-week basis. Specifically, the FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1,346.02 points, down 1.13% on a week-on-week basis; the FDI rent index closed at 1,654.83 points, down 1.37% on a week-on-week basis; among them, the Capesize vessel rent index closed at 1,742.12 points, down 3.19% on a week-on-week basis; the Panamax vessel rent index closed at 1,547.57 points, down 0.11% on a week-on-week basis; the Handymax vessel rent index closed at 1,645.72 points, up 0.09% on a week-on-week basis; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1,140.14 points, down 0.89% on a week-on-week basis [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking - Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day: On September 15th, among the major agricultural product sending countries, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 11 vessels, Argentina used 25 vessels, Ukraine used 1 vessel, Uruguay used 0 vessels, and Australia used 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product sending countries, Australia used 52 vessels, Guinea used 33 vessels, Indonesia used 41 vessels, Russia used 17 vessels, South Africa used 17 vessels, Brazil used 15 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [19]. - Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 23 vessels were used for corn shipment, 17 vessels for wheat shipment, 19 vessels for soybean shipment, 15 vessels for soybean meal shipment, and 13 vessels for sugar shipment. In terms of industrial product shipments, 100 vessels were used for coal shipment, 66 vessels for iron ore shipment, and 17 vessels for other dry cargo shipments. By vessel type, the shipment of agricultural products required the most Post-Panamax vessels, reaching 39; followed by 17 Handymax vessels; and finally 21 Handysize vessels. The shipment of industrial products required the most Capesize vessels, reaching 92; followed by 67 Post-Panamax vessels; and finally 45 Handymax vessels [20]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports In mid-to-late September, the number of vessels docked at major global ports increased significantly. Except for the number of vessels at Australian ports remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels at other ports increased on a week-on-week basis, especially at major Chinese ports. Specifically, the number of dry bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 13 on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports increased by 12 on a week-on-week basis, the number of vessels docked at South African ports increased by 1 on a week-on-week basis, and the number of vessels docked at Brazilian ports increased by 3 on a week-on-week basis [20][21]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - Brazilian Soybeans: On September 12th, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton. On September 15th, the near-term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 4,080.61 yuan per ton. - Iron Ore: On September 11th, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26,620 per day. On September 12th, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $123.1 per thousand tons. - Steam Coal: On September 11th, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,456 per day. On September 12th, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan per ton. - Logs: On September 12th, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 796.8 points. On September 12th, the CFR price of 4-meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [25].